The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off an awful loss to the Denver Broncos and are looking to right the ship against the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that the Bucs have beaten in five of the last six matchups dating back to 2015.
Todd Bowles has certainly figured something out when it comes to defending Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense. However, that doesn't mean the Week 4 matchup is any kind of guaranteed win, just as we saw last week.
It's easy to sit there and say the Bucs need to improve across the board in order to win on Sunday. After all, it was a complete letdown from top to bottom. So, instead of going that route, here are three specific areas that Bucs must outmatch the Eagles in if they want to move to 3-1 on the year.
Baker Mayfield has to be better, it's that simple
Mayfield checked all the wrong boxes against the Denver Broncos. He left the pocket too early, held onto the ball too long at times, missed reads, made bad throws and decisions, and brought the fifth-highest pressure rate (28.6%) among himself in Week 3. The key part about all of it is the fact he was off from pretty much the first snap of the game. It was a very strange performance after two weeks of solid-to-elite play.
"Like I said after the game on Sunday, some of those [sacks] in the second half were definitely on me," Mayfield told reporters Wednesday. "[I was] getting a little bit antsy, not trusting it as much. So, just trusting the timing of my footwork and just delivering the ball [and] going through the reads true to what they are, and then if I have to make a play, make a play from there or throw it away."
Granted, it wasn't all Baker's fault. The interior of the offensive line was getting beat for most of the day, especially in pass pro. Per Pro Football Focus, eight of the 12 pressures created by the offensive line were attributed to the trio of Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton, and Cody Mauch. They didn't make things much easier, but ultimately, a lot of the havoc came down to Mayfield's play.
There's no debate about it - if Mayfield doesn't have a good game against the Eagles, the Bucs are sure to be sitting at .500 heading into their Thursday Night Football matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Bucs actually have to pressure Jalen Hurts when they blitz
Per Next Gen Stats, the average blitz rate per game over the last three years is 28.2% and that coincides with average pressure rate of 42.3%. As it currently stands, the Bucs are blitzing at a 32.1% rate, which is fifth-highest among all 32 teams. The defense only yields a 30.5% pressure rate and it's generated just two sacks, however, with the former number ranking 20th and the latter number ranking dead last. The Bucs' 1.5% sack rate also ranks dead last.
To really put it into context: NFL teams have averaged a 31.2% pressure rate when sending four or less pass rushers over the last three years. So, in other words, the Bucs are blitzing guys at an above-average rate, but it's generating less pressure than sending four or less guys.
That's not good. The numbers looked a lot better over the course of the first two weeks, but things fell off in Week 3 against the Broncos. A large part of that was because of Vita Vea's absence, but a large part of it was also' Sean Payton's game plan, as half of Bo Nix's pass attempts were out within 2.5 seconds or less. The Bucs pressured Nix on just 23.1% of attempts and recorded zero sacks, despite blitzing him at a 41.0% rate. For more context, the pressure rate would rank 28th if it were a season-long average.
The Bucs have to make sure they get after Hurts on Sunday, especially when they blitz. Most QBs aren't as near as good when they're under pressure, but Hurts is near the bottom of barrel when it comes the effect it has on him.
Per PFF, Hurts has the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate (11.8%) when he's pressured. That's among 28 qualifying quarterbacks with at least 21 dropbacks under pressure. He's completed 52.8% of his passes and has thrown one touchdown to two interceptions and his 46.9 QB rating is fourth-worst out of the aforementioned qualifying players.
The good news is the Bucs may not have to blitz as much to generate pressure against Hurts because, right now, he's the third-most pressured QB in the NFL (41.2%) despite being blitzed at an average rate of 31.9%, which ranks 16th. The flip side of that, though, is the fact the Bucs have trouble pressuring/getting home with just four guys and that's always been a pretty big issue since Bowles' arrival in 2019.
Either way, the objective is clear: Get after Hurts often, consistently, and good things should happen for the Bucs defense.
The Bucs offensive line needs to straighten up, particularly in the run game
Yes, the poor pass protection was a concern on Sunday, but the Bucs might get starting right tackle Luke Goedeke back this week, which would be a huge boost. And, as a matter of fact, Goedeke's return will help the run game more than it will the pass pro.
"Getting Luke back would be huge for us," Baker Mayfield said Wednesday. "Obviously within the pass game, but run game as well. I don't think he gets enough credit for the type of "mauler" offensive lineman that he really is. Obviously, he's improved a ton in the pass protection aspect of it, but in the run game, he's huge for us."
Currently, the Bucs average -0.08 EPA/rush, which is the 10th-worst rate in the NFL. Their 33.3% success rate is fifth-lowest and their -0.8 rush yards over expected rate is sixth-worst.
There have been flashes, primarily when Bucky Irving is on the field, but overall, the run game hasn't fared much better than what we've seen over the last couple of years.
This has to get fixed against the Eagles, who are allowing 5.2 yards per carry and deploy light boxes at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (62.8%). They also allow an average of 1.06 rush yards over expected per attempt and 1.64 yards before contact per attempt which is fourth- and ninth-worst, respectively.
This all starts in-between the tackles, where the Eagles hold a 21.8% stuff rate, good for third-best. If Goedeke does in fact play and the aforementioned interior trio can rebound, the Bucs should be able to take a step forward on the ground.
Final word
There's one honorable mention, here. The Bucs need to stop the Eagles' run game, which won't be easy with Saquon Barkley running the show and the fact the Bucs run defense hasn't been very good, at all, this year. The once-stout unit has allowed more than 130 yards on the ground in every game, so far, and it's allowing the second-highest EPA/rush attempt at 0.15 EPA/attempt. Teams have also averaged 2.0 yards before contact per attempt, which is the second-worst mark.
Regardless, the Bucs need to do a complete 180 from what we saw in Week 3. That won't be easy to do, but they have enough veteran leadership to where they can right the wrongs and get back on the winning track.
"I think we learned our lesson on how detailed we need to be [and] how focused or it doesn't matter who we're playing," said Mayfield. "We have to try and set the standard within ourselves each week. So it's just a matter of relaying that back and forth with the guys and bringing everybody back to the fundamentals [and] basic details. That's the Buc brand of football and so we need to play like that."
