Expectations for the Denver Broncos in 2024 are exceedingly low, especially outside the Mile High City. Broncos fans will always cling to hope, and for good reason considering the team's storied history, but the national media doesn't see anything promising coming this season.
The truth, as in most things, is somewhere in the middle. While many national publications and pundits predict a last-place finish for the Broncos, this is a Sean Payton-coached team, after all.
Nobody has a crystal ball, and in the NFL, anything's possible. But Payton improved a five-win Broncos team in Year 1 by three victories in the standing, despite a historically bad start to the season, and a bad fit at quarterback.
In a recent Sports Illustrated roundtable, I broke down what I viewed as the best and worst-case scenarios for the Broncos in 2024. My remarks are in a blurb format, so I'll expound a little bit on each point here.
Best-Case Scenario
The Broncos earn a wild-card berth in Year 2 of the Sean Payton era. This team is rebuilding and there are some weak spots. With rookie quarterback Bo Nix to break in, there will be some bumps along the trial-and-error road, but Payton has already proven he can extract blood from a football turnip. Me
The Broncos' ultimate destiny is tied to Nix and how quickly Payton can get him up to speed. That starts now, but Nix has a quarterback competition to win. Yes, the Broncos are still holding to competition thing, despite a QB room whose veterans are a fifth-year journeyman with four career starts and a former top-3 draft bust.
I digress. It's only a matter of time before Nix gets the nod. Hopefully, that comes sooner than later, and Payton wisely opts to waste no time with Jarrett Stidham or Zach Wilson.
Why Nix could succeed immediately: He's a 24-year-old rookie and mature beyond his years. Nix has also played a lot of high-level football, with an NCAA-record 61 career starts spanning the SEC and PAC-12. If Payton's read was correct, than Nix will soon reveal himself to be a true extension of the head coach on the field, and that's when the Broncos will begin to re-conjure some Mile High Magic.
Why Nix could struggle initially: He's a rookie, after all. Despite the college experience, Nix is still making the jump to the NFL level, and there are plenty of skeptics when it comes to his wherewithal as a pro-level operator.
The last point, relative to the roster's weak spots, the Broncos aren't as devoid of talent as the national perspective would have fans believe. On offense, tight end is weak, with Adam Trautman as the No. 1 guy, but the perception of this unit could be upended if Greg Dulcich stays healthy. Dulcich has star potential.
The Broncos' receiving corps also doesn't get enough credit. Courtland Sutton headlines the unit, with 2023 special teams All-Pro Marvin Mims, Jr., free-agent newcomer Josh Reynolds, and returning veteran Tim Patrick. Throw in 2024 fourth-rounder Troy Franklin (Nix's top target at Oregon) and a few veteran holdovers like Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson, and there's more talent here than Denver is given credit for. All the unit needs is a competent triggerman to unlock its full potential and have the NFL thinkin' differently.
Defensively, there are some bigger question marks. The Broncos are starting over at safety, even with two penciled-in starters — P.J. Locke and free-agent arrival Brandon Jones. There's a competition at cornerback to decide who starts opposite Patrick Surtain II.
Inside linebacker suffered a tremendous loss when Josey Jewell defected in free agency, and Mile High Huddle remains unconvinced that free-agent signee Cody Barton will be able to make up for it. There is hope, however, that Jonas Griffith could be a factor in his return from a season lost to injury.
The Broncos significantly beefed up the defensive line after a woeful finish as a run defense last year, acquiring John Franklin-Myers via trade and signing Malcolm Roach. Outside linebacker has a log-jam of young guys, but all of them are unproven when it comes to being a true alpha pass rusher.
Baron Browning could headline the group if he can stay healthy this year, and Nik Bonitto — the team's sack leader in 2023 — could be on the verge of taking another big step in his development. Jonathon Cooper, like Browning, enters a contract year, and the Broncos love rookie third-rounder Jonah Elliss.
On defense, outside of Surtain, linebacker Alex Singleton, and D-lineman Zach Allen, the Broncos are the epitome of unproven. The onus is on defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to translate all this potential into production, once the dust settles on the fierce competitions set to unfold at cornerback, linebacker, and safety.
Worst-Case Scenario
The Broncos miss the playoffs for a ninth consecutive season. It could be that Nix needs more time than Payton perhaps judged initially. If so, 2024 will still be a vital year of utility for the Broncos because Nix is the future and the reps he’ll get as a rookie will eventually pay dividends. Yours Truly
As a team in Year 1 of a rebuild, missing the playoffs is probable. That's what the odds say, but if you go back and analyze recent NFL history and identify the rebuilding teams that defied expectations and made the playoffs, the Broncos share many of the same factors that ultimately made the difference.
Take the 2023 Houston Texans, who made the playoffs with a first-year head coach and a top-2 rookie quarterback. DeMeco Ryans out-kicked his coverage in Year 1, and Stroud displayed the early makings of a franchise quarterback, serving as the tide that raised the ships around him, and led the Texans to an odds-defying playoff berth.
The Broncos' head coach is in Year 2, but it's the first season of the rebuild, and like Stroud, Nix is also a first-round rookie expected to start. The big commonality here is coach/quarterback.
In the NFL, a true franchise quarterback can salve most wounds, but without a top head coach, a team's potential is capped. And vice versa. The Broncos have the coach, and we'll find out soon enough whether Nix is that quarterback.
We all know that team success in the NFL comes down to the quarterback. For the past eight years, the Broncos have been stuck in neutral because they've lacked a bonafide franchise quarterback.
The NFL doesn't see Nix as a franchise guy. That's fine. Payton disagrees. If the Broncos were right about Nix, he'll win the starting job this summer, and begin the season as QB1.
And then, all things become possible.
