In the NFL, it's uncommon for a rookie quarterback to start the majority of the season and lead his team to the playoffs. With rookie growing pains that often occur it is easy to understand why.
Over the course of NFL history, there have been a handful of quarterbacks who have started 50% or more of the team’s games in their first season and won enough to earn a postseason berth. The Denver Broncos' own Bo Nix just accomplished this feat.
Nix had a stellar first season in Denver. He started off rough but improved tremendously after the first few games.
Nix tossed 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions, completed 66% of his passes, and threw for 3,775 yards. These are good numbers, especially for a rookie.
But how does Nix's season, from a statistical standpoint, compare to the other rookie quarterbacks who tasted the postseason in their first year?
Obviously, Nix’s rookie counterpart, Jayden Daniels, is another first-year quarterback to lead his team to the playoffs. Their stats have been compared frequently as they both compete in the Offensive Rookie of the Year sweepstakes.
However, there are some examples dating back to the 1970s and 1980s to examine. We will look at some of the best and worst, adjusted for era, to understand where Nix ranks among those rookies to lead their team to the playoffs all-time.
Of the early-era candidates, like Pat Haden, Dieter Brock, Bernie Kosar, and Dan Marino, only Marino had a good rookie season statistically. The others either had less-than-mediocre or downright awful seasons and likely got to the playoffs on the backs of a quality team.
The next set of quarterbacks from the 2000s, such as Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, and Matt Ryan had average to poor seasons. The 2010s saw Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Dak Prescott and others. More recently C.J. Stroud leapt onto the scene with one of the best rookie performances ever. All had varying degrees of success by the numbers.
First, let’s start with the bottom of the barrel. The worst three quarterback rookie seasons when leading their team to the playoffs are Sanchez, Kosar, and Flacco.
Those teams had no less than four Pro Bowlers in those seasons and a few future Hall-of-Famers. These quarterbacks were along for the ride because they had some of the worst performances adjusted for era since 1950.
Adjusted for era, the best was Marino. He only started nine games in his first season but he hinted at what was to follow in his Hall-of-Fame career.
Marino wasn’t along for the ride even though that team was loaded with Pro Bowl players. He threw 20 touchdowns in nine games, which was significant for that period.
Next is C.J. Stroud. He put the Houston Texans on his back for many of the games in 2023, leading the NFL in yards passing per game while only throwing five interceptions.
In third place would be Wilson. That name leaves a bitter taste in the mouths of many in Broncos Country but as a rookie he was very good. Although he was aided by the early form of the Legion of Boom his efficiency and ability to improvise helped the offense do just enough to get the team into the playoffs.
Nix checks in next. There's an argument between Nix and Daniels on who bumps Wilson from the third position. Even adjusted for era, Nix slightly edges out Wilson.
Furthermore, the Broncos relied on Nix far more than the Seattle Seahawks had to rely on Wilson to win games. Both used a strong defense but the Broncos have a anemic running game while Seattle had one of the top rushing attacks in the league led by Marshawn Lynch. A strong running game helps a first-year signal caller.
No matter how you'd like to argue the point, Nix just produced a Top 5 season for those rookie quarterbacks who led their teams to the postseason. Whether or not it means something for his future is yet to be seen.
It indicates Nix is much farther ahead than expected and will only get better as his offensive weapons and rushing attack improve. The future is bright for this young quarterback.
