Broncos CB Pat Surtain II is a Long-Shot for DPoY, History Suggests

The Denver Broncos have a special player in Patrick Surtain II. His talent is the straw that stirs the drink for the Broncos defense.

Surtain's ability to shut down top receivers is so reliable and consistent that Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can be more creative with what he is doing with his linebackers and safeties. With how good Surtain has been this season, is he in the running for the Defensive Player of the Year award? 

Surtain is in the running for it, but he has the seventh-best odds to win it, entering the Week 13 slate of games. The award is hard to win if you aren’t a pass rusher, and the odds reflect that. Before getting to the current odds, let's examine why history shows how difficult it is for a non-pass rusher to win DPoY. 

Over the last 10 seasons, only one player who wasn’t a pass rusher won the award — cornerback Stephon Gilmore in 2019. Going back to the Year 2000, only nine players who weren’t pass rushers have won the award. 

There has always been massive favoritism toward players who sack the quarterback, and it's only grown over the past 10 years. This makes it difficult for Surtain to win without getting a lot of interceptions. Gilmore won it when he had six interceptions on the season. Surtain sits at three. 

The current odds continue to show favoritism, as the six ahead of Surtain in the odds are all pass rushers. Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt leads the way, followed by (in order) Kansas City's Chris Jones, San Francisco's Nick Bosa, Cincinnati's Trey Hendrickson, New York's Dexter Lawrence, and Houston's Will Anderson Jr. 

It's unfortunate that sacks carry as much weight as they do, as understandable as it is. Surtain is a difference-maker on this defense, and his being out there on the field is vital.

When Surtain left the game against the Los Angeles Chargers on the first play, the Broncos defense was wholly different and struggled. Sure, the Broncos had a good bounce-back game defensively against the New Orleans Saints without him. But the Saints were dealing with many injuries themselves, with all of their top wide receivers being out. 

That doesn’t mean the same wouldn’t happen to those other defenses if the other DPoY favorites were to miss a game. They're all difference-makers in their own right.

Pass rushers have a much easier time winning the award than any cornerback, like Surtain. It isn’t a slight against Surtain, as much as it may feel like it. His best hope is to crank up his ball production, and start stacking interceptions.