Broncos QB Bo Nix Given Questionable Fantasy Outlook for Year 2

After an 8-9 2023 campaign, the Denver Broncos shocked the world by taking quarterback Bo Nix early in the 2024 NFL Draft. The move panned out in year one, as Nix delivered a very solid debut campaign and led Denver to the playoffs.

Now, the pressure is on for Nix to deliver a great encore effort. One analyst isn’t buying it from a fantasy football perspective.

In a story for Pro Football Focus, Nathan Jahnke listed three quarterbacks to avoid in drafts. Nix kicked off the group, with an average draft position (ADP) of the ninth pick in the sixth round cited.

Contextualizing Bo Nix’s Rookie Season for Broncos

Jahnke noted that after getting off to a slow start, Nix averaged more than 2 touchdowns per game in his final 13 outings. With that said, the circumstances that production came under weren’t the most sustainable.

Jahnke expects Nix to be a better quarterback this season, albeit not with the same fantasy production.

“This meant he also had some bad games, which is to be expected for a rookie,” Jahnke wrote. “His 72.8 passing grade ranked seventh best among the 17 rookies with at least 500 snaps in their rookie season. His passing grade was better than fellow rookies Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. It’s fair to expect Nix’s touchdowns per game to regress while his quality of play improves, leading to more passing yards per game.”

Last season, Nix completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He was also a threat on the ground, toting the ball 92 times for 430 yards and another 4 scores. In head coach Sean Payton’s system, he excelled.

Advanced stats didn’t love Nix’s season as much. He ranked 16th in EPA per play according to rbsdm.com. The former No. 12 overall pick was 21st in completion percentage over expected and 22nd in success rate.

The Broncos’ offense jumped from 19th in scoring to 10th, so it isn’t like Nix didn’t make a big difference. Jahnke simply believes there might be too much buzz for him right now.

Denver’s Offensive Line Could Make or Break Nix’s Fantasy Outcome

Another critical element contributed to Nix’s success. His offensive line was simply tremendous throughout the year. According to PFF, Denver had the NFL’s top pass blocking offensive line with an 83.5 grade. In ESPN’s pass block win rate rankings, they also topped the list. Metrics and the eye test alike both reflect a quality front line.

That’s hard to repeat year-over-year. Injuries, inconsistency or just plain old regression can play a role in fluctuations. Jahnke is aware of that, citing the offensive line as a potential reason Nix isn’t a top-flight fantasy option.

“Nix was greatly helped by having the highest graded offensive line in terms of pass protection,” Jahnke wrote. “The entire line played at least 800 snaps and at least 13 games. Left tackle Garett Bolles had a great rookie season in 2017 and has generally improved as his career has progressed. Center Luke Wattenberg and right guard Quinn Meinerz took notable steps forward in 2024. Nix had an 85.0 passing grade when kept clean and a 39.8 passing grade under pressure. If Nix takes a step back in his second season, it would likely be from injuries to the offensive line.”

For Nix, a lot went right in year No. 1. When things didn’t go perfectly in structure, he still found ways to extend plays and create outside the pocket. The latter should help him maintain a relatively safe fantasy floor.

The ceiling is where Jahnke, as well as many other fantasy analysts, aren’t totally sure.