While the reasonable thing at this point might be to look at the period of Baker Mayfield’s NFL career from 2021 to 2022 as the exception and not the rule, being reasonable and talking about NFL quarterbacks usually don’t go hand in hand.
That’s why Bleacher Report’s Alex Ballentine singled out a possible regression by Mayfield in his third season as the starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the “worst case scenario” for the NFC contenders in 2025.
Ballentine’s worst case theoretical on Mayfield doesn’t give him much agency — it’s largely tied to whether or not he and new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard can be on the same page.
“Mayfield has been on an upward trajectory since joining the Bucs in 2023, but it’s worth noting that year-to-year consistency has been an issue for him,” Ballentine wrote on June 16. ” … On one hand, he’s used to working with a new coach just about every year. On the other, there seems to be a pattern of Mayfield only performing well when he has a good coach orchestrating the offense. That’s going to put even more pressure on Grizzard to pick up where (Liam) Coen left off. Things will get ugly if Mayfield regresses with this much talent around him.”
If anything, Grizzard who should be going out of his way to accommodate Mayfield, if not for anything other than his own career trajectory.
In Mayfield’s first 2 seasons as Tampa Bay’s quarterback, both of the offensive coordinators have been hired as head coaches immediately following the year — Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales following the 2023 season and Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen following the 2024 season.
Mayfield Discarded by Browns in Favor of Watson
Most of the football world gave up on Mayfield after he was traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Panthers before the 2022 season in order for the Browns to make room for Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson via trade.
That came after Mayfield, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, had a slight regression and missed 3 games due to injury in 2021.
To get Watson from the Texans, the Browns gave up three first round picks in 2022, 2023 and 2024 along with a 2022 third round pick, 2023 third round pick and 2024 fourth round pick. Then, they signed him to a fully guaranteed 5-year, $230 million deal — widely viewed as the worst contract in NFL history.
In the ensuing 3 seasons, Watson has only played in 19 of a possible 51 regular season games due to suspensions and injuries. He is projected to miss all of 2025 after tearing his Achilles tendon then re-tearing it after surgery.
Mayfield One of NFL’s Elite QBs in Tampa Bay
Mayfield was a backup for the Panthers and Rams in 2022 then got a 1-year, $3 million “Prove It” deal to be Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback in 2023.
He’s responded with the 2 best seasons of his career and was rewarded with a 3-year, $100 million contract before the 2024 season.
With another big year for the Buccaneers, Mayfield could set himself up for one of the NFL’s biggest contracts of all time. He’s currently making approximately $33 million per season and could easily see that number jump to $50 million or higher.
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