Bucs ‘Closing the Gap’ on NFC’s Elite, But Still Snubbed in ESPN’s Rankings

After a rollercoaster regular season in 2024, the Bucs have had a top-tier offseason. They’ve developed an even deeper wide receiver room and brought in talented, young corners to build depth on defense. Even after several key additions, the Bucs still fell just outside the top 10 in ESPN’s roster rankings this morning.

Bucs’ Biggest Strength, X-Factor Both on Offense

This morning, NFL analysts Mike Clay, Aaron Schatz and Seth Walder released their rankings of the best projected starting lineups. ESPN’s team combined their rankings and averaged them out to find out how each team stacks up in 2025.

They considered a number of factors, including age, talent and production, and based their rankings on the rosters as they are currently constructed. The analysts also compared each team’s starting units to find the strongest and weakest position groups. With the offseason done, the analysts ranked the Bucs No. 12. That put them just behind two other NFC contenders: San Francisco 49ers (No. 10) and Minnesota Vikings (No. 11).

The Bucs offense ranks near the top of the league, thanks to one of the NFL’s deepest wide receiver rooms. Of course, the guy passing them the ball has something to do with it, too.

Baker Mayfield has experienced an impressive resurgence during his first two seasons in Tampa Bay. Mayfield will look to maintain his elite accuracy, while working in a well-balanced offense alongside his backfield mate, Bucky Irving. If he can do that, the Bucs should be on their way to another successful offensive campaign.

But, the status of star LT Tristan Wirfs could be a major factor. Wirfs is expected to start the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. If the Bucs are unable to protect Mayfield’s blind side or generate running lanes effectively, they could be in for a rough start to the season.

That’s especially true, considering their Week 1 matchup will come against a division rival in the Falcons. Atlanta has a revamped pass rush and an offense that should be in even better shape this season with a more mobile quarterback in Michael Penix Jr.

ESPN’s Seth Walder called the “fallout” from Wirfs’ injury the team’s “X factor.” Wirfs is one of the league’s best linemen, ranking just behind Philadelphia‘s Jordan Mailata as the No. 2 tackle. His pass-blocking skills are second-to-none, setting up the Bucs’ replacement with some big shoes to fill.

As my colleague, Tony Adame, noted earlier this month, “journeyman” Charlie Heck is slated to take over at left tackle. Heck has started a total of 23 games across five seasons, playing just 1,688 snaps. Taking over for a four-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro is a tall task, especially for someone who just signed in mid-March.

“Part of the Buccaneers’ success in 2024 was a line that ranked top six in both pass block and run block win rate,” Walder wrote. “It will be much harder to continue their level of play without Wirfs as an advantage in the trenches.”

Tampa Bay’s Biggest Weakness, Potential Breakout Both on Defense

While the Bucs have traditionally cultivated an identity as a defensive team, they’ve embraced a much more balanced team structure in recent years. But, their secondary struggled mightily last season, due to a litany of injuries and breakdowns in coverage.

While their defensive front was able to generate tons of pressure and get to the quarterback, their secondary struggled. Injuries slowed down several key members, including both of their starting safeties. Veteran Jordan Whitehead and 2023 First-Team All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr. played just six games together.

That lack of continuity prevented Todd Bowles from utilizing several different packages, forcing him to rely on more blitzes from linebackers, leaving the middle of the field open.

While the Bucs added veteran Haason Reddick this offseason, Mike Clay noted that “edge rusher continues to the largest concern.” While Clay did call the Bucs’ roster “pretty solid and balanced,” he has a valid point.

“Perhaps the Bucs can get newcomer Haason Reddick back on track, but that’s no sure thing after a down season (1.0 sack in 10 games) and in his age-30 campaign,” Clay wrote.

Linebacker SirVocea Dennis earned a mention from ESPN’s Aaron Schatz as a “Nonstarter to know.” Dennis has established himself as a breakout candidate for the Bucs defense this offseason. He excels at play recognition and pass coverage, which should prevent passers from carving up the middle of the field.

“Don’t be surprised if Dennis ends up starting ahead of free agent addition Anthony Walker Jr. at middle linebacker,” Schatz wrote this morning.

Despite their injury issues and potential holes on both sides of the ball, the Bucs are still the clear favorites in the NFC South. If their defense can stay healthy and their offense can weather the storm without Wirfs, they should be in contention for a playoff run.

Yahoo’s Frank Schwab even believes “they are close to being a Super Bowl contender,” according to Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport. Davenport ranked the Bucs No. 7 in his power rankings heading into training camp earlier this month. Schwab praised their offense and noted their near-misses against the league’s elite teams in 2024.

Schwab said the following during a podcast appearance back in March:

“I think this offense is awesome. I think adding Emeka Egbuka in the first round was a little bit unconventional, but when you look at it, you’re like, ‘Make your strength stronger. We’re just gonna make Baker Mayfield the best quarterback we could possibly make him.’ This is a team that won at Detroit last year. They should have won at Kansas City, if they go for two — just a bad mistake to let Patrick Mahomes win in overtime. But this is a team I think is right there. I think they’re very, very close.”