Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes should enter the 2024 NFL season as the No. 1 QB in fantasy football, but very few outlets and analysts have him ranked as such.
Mahomes has regularly ranked as the No. 3 or No. 4 in early fantasy football rankings in both standard and PPR formats. They often point to the fact that winning Super Bowls doesn't translate to fantasy football success. They claim that other quarterbacks provide more value because of their rushing ability.
They're not exactly wrong about either of those things, but they're also ignoring everything that the Chiefs have done to correct their offensive issues from a season ago.
Chiefs GM Brett Veach's need to overcorrect
Anyone with eyes last season could see that the wide receiver group was hindering the efforts of Mahomes. When it came to the deep passing game, there were struggles to separate, but also constant struggles to track and catch the ball.
They won Super Bowl LVIII despite the struggles they had at wide receiver, but Chiefs GM Brett Veach wasn't going to sit on his hands. He went out and got Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown in free agency. He added the fastest receiver in NFL Scouting Combine history in the 2024 NFL draft when he traded up to get Texas WR Xavier Worthy. He also added a big target at the tight end position in Jared Wiley, which opens up tons of opportunities in 12 and 13 personnel looks. He also went out and got a promising left tackle prospect in Kingsley Suamataia, who could really shore up pass protection.
It's reminiscent of the team's loss in Super Bowl LV, where Veach completely revamped the offensive line in a single offseason. If things go according to plan, getting open isn't going to be a problem for Chiefs receivers this year. They also have enough competitive depth throughout the roster that they're going to get the best possible version of every receiver that makes the 53-man roster.
Getting back to the Chiefs' offense of old
It's no secret that the Chiefs are trying to resurrect the deep passing game. They had to adjust during the 2020 NFL season because of all the two-high coverage they saw, but in 2023 they were just flat-out bad when it came to the deep passing attack.
Last year, Patrick Mahomes had one of the lowest adjusted completion percentages (39.5%) on passes that traveled 20 or more yards. He also had the most dropped passes on deep balls in the NFL (6) and one of the highest rates of turnover-worthy plays on deep passes (11.8%) according to PFF. Compare that to a season like 2018, where Mahomes had one of the top adjusted completion percentages in the league (48.1%) on deep passes with half as many dropped passes (3).
The coaching staff in Kansas City appears to be making a concerted effort to correct these issues with the deep passing game this offseason. Ask anyone on the Chiefs beat, OTAs and mandatory minicamp might as well have been referred to as a deep passing camp. Andy Reid and Matt Nagy were both asked about it and explained they use these camps as a testing ground for "window throws."
Remembering Mahomes' best fantasy season
In his 2018 breakout season, where he won his first league MVP award, Mahomes led the NFL with 415.1 fantasy points and 25.9 fantasy points per game (standard scoring). That's 71.6 fantasy points more than the next closest QB and an average of over four more points per game than any other QB in the league.
Just imagine what Mahomes can accomplish with a defense like the one he had last offseason and an offense more reminiscent of 2018 than 2023. That's what Kansas City is aiming for in 2024, and I wouldn't doubt their ability to achieve that goal as they go for their third consecutive Super Bowl title.
