Final Contract Extension Projections For Bucs’ 2022 Draft Class

The Bucs should be busy this offseason. And not just with external moves.

Much like last year, the team will have homegrown talent to lock up. But unlike last year, time is less of a factor. Yes, star wide receiver Chris Godwin is a pending free agent. But beyond him, the priority will likely be placed on young talent that aren’t pending free agents, but still eligible for extensions.

Three Members Of Bucs’ 2022 Draft Class Likely To Get Extensions

Right tackle Luke Goedeke, tight end Cade Otton and cornerback Zyon McCollum are all members of the Bucs’ 2022 draft class who have a good chance to ink new deals in the offseason.

Goedeke has become the ultimate story, blossoming into one of the best right tackles in the NFL. Otton has improved from a borderline starter into one of the best move-blocking tight ends in the league. And during a four-week stretch where the team was without Godwin and Mike Evans, Otton became the team’s primary weapon in the passing game and shouldered the load well. McCollum started the year playing like a premier corner before falling off towards the end of the season.

All three should be considered a part of the Bucs roster plans for the next 3-5 years and Tampa Bay would be wise to lock them up sooner rather than later because the salary cap only goes up – and their respective price tags will likely go up, too. With the regular season concluded I can now make final contract projections for each. There is a chance that any one or more of these players could have a narrative-driven postseason that drives their prices up a bit, but I feel comfortable that these projections will be close to their true value at this point.

RT Luke Goedeke

Luke Goedeke has the greatest likelihood to get an early extension and will be the costliest. He plays the most important position of the three. Consider that the five highest-paid offensive tackles in the NFL have an average APY of just under $27 million per year. The top five tight ends average $15.375 million per year and the top five cornerbacks average just under $22 million per year.

Goedeke’s 2024 has been stellar. Of the 64 tackles with at least 350 pass blocking snaps, Goedeke ranks seventh in pressure rate allowed (3.14%) and tied for eighth in pass block efficiency (98.0). He has allowed just three sacks, and no quarterback hits all season. And this is on the heels of a very solid 2023 when he successfully transitioned back to his natural position of right tackle.

The projection system that my partner, Kyle DeDimicantanio, and I developed project Goedeke for a $20 million APY on his extension. But it’s always good to look at comparable players to create a true baseline for a deal. Our system identified Brian O’Neill’s 2021 contract with the Vikings as one of his closest comps, so let’s take a look at the two side-by-side to see if they are a good match.

O’Neill would seem to be a good comp for Goedeke to submit. O’Neill got a five-year extension for $92.5 million, averaging $18.5 million per year with $22,576,118 fully guaranteed. The Bucs have shown a willingness to do five-year extensions for tackles, as evidenced by just such a deal for left tackle Tristan Wirfs last year.

If Goedeke were to successfully argue this comp, he would look for a cap-inflation adjustment that could tick his APY from O’Neill’s $18.5 million to $25 million per year. This would be considerably higher than the $20 million I have him projected for and would make him the second-highest paid right tackle in the NFL, trailing only Penei Sewell of the Detroit Lions.

While I am confident this will be a path Goedeke’s representation takes, I think the Bucs will be able to successfully argue some more recent comps as a counter. As a matter of fact, I think they may look at the most recent early extension signed by a right tackle as a starting point for negotiations. Spencer Brown and the Buffalo Bills signed an extension right at the beginning of the 2024 season and there are some similarities between he and Goedeke that might make for a good comparison.

Both tackles had horrendous rookie seasons only to bounce back into solid or better players by year three. But there are key differences that should work in Goedeke’s favor. While both players were Day 2 picks, Goedeke was a second-round pick while Brown was selected in the third round.

And Goedeke has had better grading, and a lower pressure rate allowed over both the entire three-year sample as well in his platform year. All of this will bode well for him getting more than Brown’s $18 million APY.

Just working off of that number and inflating for a salary cap increase from this year’s $255.4 million to next year’s likely $275 million would push the offer to $19.33 million per year. Add in the draft and performance premiums and I am confident the Bucs would come in around a $20 million per year offer. This would leave the two sides about $5 million apart on the APY.

Where I think the compromise comes in is Tampa Bay offering higher guarantees than O’Neill received while Goedeke gives them one more year than the four Brown signed for. The Bucs fully guaranteed 37% of Wirfs’ extension and a similar offer to Goedeke would help offset some of the APY haggling.

The difference between O’Neill’s 24.4% guarantee and a 35% guarantee over five years could be as much as an $11.5 million difference. If Goedeke is willing to come a little further on the APY difference and give the Bucs the fifth year they are likely seeking, and Tampa Bay is willing to give a similar guaranteed structure as they did on the Wirfs deal, I could see the two meeting somewhere in this ballpark.

Five years, $107.5 million ($21.5 million APY), $37.5 million fully guaranteed

The Bucs would likely create a rolling guarantee structure similar to Wirfs’ that would eventually guarantee up to about $70 million.

TE Cade Otton

Cade Otton was on his way to the most productive season of his career before a late-season knee injury robbed him of the final three games of the 2024 regular season. Still, he has produced 1,659 yards and 11 touchdowns over the past three seasons. Those numbers rank more favorably on tight end lists than you might think. For example, Otton is 13th in receiving yards among all tight ends since entering the NFL.

The tight end position is due for a market adjustment and the next wave of deals are likely to be bigger than the ones that came before them, so any team proactively working on getting ahead of this adjustment will save some money. Our system projects Otton for an APY of just under $13 million, with his three closest comps from recent seasons as Noah Fant in 2024, Evan Engram in 2022 and Cole Kmet in 2023.

Those three players’ APY’s average out to 4.66% of the salary cap at time of signing and we have Otton right in line with that estimation. Fant is the most recent comp, and has slightly better receiving stats, but is not the blocker Otton is. Plus, the tight end market is set for an upward adjustment this off-season. I expect the Bucs and Otton to come in on an extension that looks like this.

Four years, $52 million ($13 million APY), $18.5 million fully guaranteed

Similar to Luke Goedeke, expect a rolling guarantee structure that would take total guarantees to $30 million.

CB Zyon McCollum

Given his late-season slump, I am less-convinced than ever that Zyon McCollum will sign an extension. I’m not saying it won’t happen. But I am saying there is a solid chance it might not.

Based on his early season play, I conjectured McCollum could be primed for a deal that approached had an APY of $20 million per year. But that number is now off the table.

I’ll also note that cornerback, along with linebacker, are the two most difficult positions to project. With that said, I think the Bucs might still want to get in ahead of another positional market reset that is on the precipice of happening.

The cornerback market is going to explode with elite players Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr. and Trent McDuffie likely to get new deals. Add them to recent deals for Deommodore Lenoir, Jalen Ramsey, Patrick Surtain Jr., A.J. Terrell, Tyson Campbell and L’Jarius Sneed and you get a rising tide that will lift all boats.

A $14.5 million APY would represent a premium over McCollum’s total body of work to date. But it would also represent a significant value over the glimpses he showed early this year and what he is capable at his best. If he were to put together an entire season like he showed weeks 1-9 of 2024, he could be looking at an APY of $21-22.5 million per year in 2026. And that will be with him set to become a free agent.

The 2025 franchise tag for cornerback is projected to be north of $20 million per year. The 2026 number will only be higher. An extension at $14.5 million could provide the Bucs with huge savings on what McCollum might become. It’s a bit of a risk. But by taking it now, Tampa Bay can fold most of the guaranteed money into 2025 and 2026 giving them reasonable outs just one year out from his original free agency date.

Looking at the just platform seasons here are the three closest players we found to McCollum’s 2024 looking at the highest correlating metrics.

That’s an impressive list of corners. All had a more comprehensive career leading into their contracts than McCollum, but I think this illustrates the upside that McCollum presents. When considering his entire body of work since being drafted, McCollum’s comps become more average than elite.

If you look at the average contracts from those two lists, adjusted for the likely salary cap in 2025, you get an APY of $21.8 million on the high side and $8.9 million on the low. The midpoint of those two numbers is $15.35 million, which is a bit north of the $14.5 million I suggested. I came in lower at $14.5 million to represent McCollum’s best performance being a smaller sample size.

The final deal, as I see it would be:

Three Years, $43.5 million ($14.5 million), $24 million fully guaranteed

This deal would be just south of Carlton Davis III’s three-year, $44.5 million contract that he signed with the Bucs in 2022. And that’s why I think this contract isn’t very likely. When Davis signed his deal, he was paid as a Top 10 corner.

If McCollum and the Bucs were to finalize this proposed contract, he would slot in at 14th. And that would quickly move down the leaderboard with all of the aforementioned players who are about to sign mega contracts. McCollum will probably want to give 2025 a shot to reach the elite status and cash in at over $20 million per year.

The only way I see this getting done is if McCollum wants to secure the guaranteed money, which is why I suggested the three-year term. It allows McCollum to look for an extension after the 2027 season or hit free agency in 2028 still under 30.