How Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield may have impacted Vikings' Sam Darnold franchise-tag decision

It's believed the Minnesota Vikings decided against using the franchise tag to retain quarterback Sam Darnold after they learned during the NFL Scouting Combine that other teams weren't eager to trade for him if he was on the tag worth roughly $40.24M for the 2025 season. 

For a mailbag published on Wednesday, NFL insider Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated shared that he has "talked to enough people who feel like" Darnold will ultimately receive a contract similar to the three-year, $100M deal that Baker Mayfield inked to stay with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last offseason. Breer suggested that Minnesota franchising Darnold simply didn't make financial sense for the club.

"Darnold would know he can just collect the $40.24M, and a second tag would cost the team $48.204M a year from now (at which point he’d either get that or go into free agency)," Breer said about negotiations between the Vikings and the quarterback's camp. "Two, it would put that lump sum on the salary cap, which the Vikings would be able to do nothing about without his help." 

Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell indicated during the latest edition of the "Fitz & Whit" podcast that he understands one quarterback-needy team will soon outbid Minnesota for Darnold's services. Specifically, Ryan McFadden and Turron Davenport of ESPN predicted for a piece published Wednesday that the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders will present Darnold with three-year deals worth around $120M-$125M with between $55M-$85M guaranteed. 

Meanwhile, it became clear during the combine that O'Connell and Co. trust that 2024 first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy is ready to replace Darnold after McCarthy spent his entire rookie season recovering from the full meniscus repair he needed this past summer. 

"They love and believe in J.J. McCarthy," Breer said about the Vikings. "He played well enough in camp last year to at least raise, internally, the discussion on what starting him as a rookie would’ve looked like." 

Breer hinted that Darnold will give the Vikings a chance to match the best offer the 27-year-old receives after the free-agent negotiating window opens on March 10 because "the relationship there is good." With that said, the relationship probably isn't good enough for the Vikings to give Darnold more than $40.24M in guaranteed money this offseason.