If Broncos Trade-Up in the Draft, Here's How it Could Happen

Many NFL draft analysts are pairing the Denver Broncos with either Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty or Penn State tight end Tyler Warren. However, most of those same analysts don’t actually project either to be there for Denver at No. 20 overall.

So, that raises the question, will Broncos head coach Sean Payton urge GM George Paton to make the trade-up to land Jeanty or Warren? 

The speculation coming out of New Orleans during Super Bowl week was that Jeanty is all but set to be the Dallas Cowboys' pick at 12th overall. There's also the speculation that if he somehow made it past the Cowboys, a pair of teams picking 13-19 overall will be hoping for Jeanty as their pick. 

There's much speculation about Warren being a top-10 pick, which would be well out of the Broncos' range. The analysts of NFL.com had Warren in a range of No. 5 overall to 14 in their mock drafts, with the talented tight end landing with teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and Indianapolis Colts. Any of these landing spots would make sense for Warren and suggest he'll unlikely be on the board at No. 20 overall, where the Broncos sit. 

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So the Broncos may have to trade up for Warren if they don't want to risk losing him, but the question is, what would the cost be? That's always hard to gauge because the value of first-round draft picks varies from team to team and year to year. The strength of the draft class also changes what teams can ask for, and teams moving up may be unwilling to give up a lot for undervalued positions like running back and tight end.

To find a trade in which the team at 20 is moving up, you have to go back to the 2021 NFL draft. The New York Giants had the 11th overall pick and sent it to the Chicago Bears for the 20th pick, 164th pick, and future first- and fourth-round picks.

This led to the Bears drafting quarterback Justin Fields. While it isn’t a one-for-one for what the Broncos would be looking at this year, it's a similar ask to get ahead of the Cowboys at No. 12, who seem set on Jeanty. Of course, we have a long way to go until the draft, and a lot can still change. 

If Warren is a top-eight pick, as NFL.com's recent mocks suggest, Broncos Country may want to be familiar with the other tight ends in this class. However, if he slips, the above trade template is also a relevant package to examine. Again, it wouldn't be a one-for-one with how things differ from 2021 when that trade was made, but it's still relevant. 

A trade likely to be viewed as a better baseline is from 2019, which included the Broncos trading back. The Pittsburgh Steelers traded the 20th and 52nd overall pick and a 2020 third-rounder to Denver to get to 10th overall to draft linebacker Devin Bush. Denver selected tight end Noah Fant at No. 20.

Would parting with the 20th and 51st overall pick with a 2026 third-rounder be worth getting in position to land Jeanty or Warren? That's a conversation the Broncos brass will likely kick around for the next two months.