Kaapo Kakko sizzles while Alexis Lafreniere fizzles, but Rangers still chose right

Though he has made enormous strides defensively in the past month, Lafreniere has just four points in the past 13 games. Top-line wingers don't make nearly $7.5 million for that performance. So, what gives? 

The metrics under the hood tell a curious story centered on one basic fact: Kakko and his linemates are on a shooting hot streak while Lafreniere and his linemates are in a shooting slump. Neither of these things are likely to continue.

Since Dec. 18, Lafreniere is 60th of 467 forwards in individual expected goals generated per hour, according to Natural Stat Trick. His chance generation is increasing as the season progresses.

(Expected goals are measured using the historic probability of a scoring chance or high-danger chance turning into a goal. Individual expected goals are measured using the contributions created solely by the individual player rather than including their linemates.)

Meanwhile, Kakko is  389th of 467 forwards in that same stat in the past month, generating individually about a third of what Lafreniere has with both players playing on the top line for their respective teams. 

Since the trade, Kakko is generating about 0.3 expected goals fewer per hour than he was with the Rangers and 0.46 fewer shots per hour, according to Natural Stat Trick. Curiously, his shooting percentage has ballooned to 20 percent in all situations with Seattle. 

Lafreniere, since the Rangers traded Kakko, is generating about 1.4 additional high-danger chances per hour than he was before the trade. The goals, however, have not come.

A deeper answer might exist within the numbers of the Panarin-Trocheck-Lafreniere line. They were one of the best in the NHL last season at generating offense. And, while that remained true this season, they were giving up chances the other way in droves, allowing 12.1 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes from the start of the season until mid-December, when Kakko was traded. 

Since then, the line has drastically improved its defense. By the numbers, they have not sacrificed offensive generation for defense. In the past 13 games since the Kakko trade, the Rangers' top line has reduced their high-danger chances against per hour to 9.24 while simultaneously showing an increase in chance creation at a rate of 1.65 more per hour. 

Using MoneyPuck's line comparison tool for reference, that would put the Rangers' top line in the upper half of the league among the 33 lines who have played at least 200 minutes this season in both expected goals per hour for and expected goals against per hour. 

That line grades out as middle of the road among lines with at least 200 minutes together, according to MoneyPuck. 

The opportunities are there and the line has had success, outscoring opponents 7-2 in the team's past 13 games. They're doing this despite seeing their on-ice shooting percentage at just 7.9 percent in that span.

The data and metrics look good for Lafreniere and his linemates and less promising for Kakko. Yet, in a league with paper-thin margins, the only way to erase the budding narrative is to convert those chances into goals.

In this, Kakko has done a better job over the past month.