Kansas City Chiefs' One Big Question: Where Has the Deep Ball Gone, and Will It Come Back?

In this offseason series, Athlon's Doug Farrar asks the One Big Question for every NFL team when the 2025 season begins. In the case of the Kansas City Chiefs, coming off their 40-22 Super Bowl embarrassment at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles, the big question is how Andy Reid's offense can create more explosive plays, because they've basically disappeared over the last two seasons. Hopefully, Reid and Patrick Mahomes have everything assembled to bring those vertical shot plays back on the field from the playbook.

If there's one thing you would never expect, it's for Patrick Mahomes to be one of the NFL's worst deep passers. But in the 2024 season, that's exactly what he was. On throws of 20 or more air yards, Mahomes completed just 16 of 54 passes of 20 or more air yards for 589 yards, six touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 78.7, fifth-worst in the NFL among quarterbacks who played at least 50% of their teams' snaps. Mahomes was one of four quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Mac Jones, Anthony Richardson) to have a total negative EPA on deep passes at -0.4.

Moreover, this was not a one-year trend. In 2023, Mahomes' deep passes did even less damage to Kansas City's opponents, and even more to his own offense. Then, he completed 24 of 76 deep passes for 817 yards, two touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 49.1. which was the NFL's worst among qualifying quarterbacks. 

This had not been a problem before. From his first NFL season as a starter in 2018, Mahomes had been among the best quarterbacks when slinging it deep. But starting with the trade that sent Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins on March 23, 2022, the passing game imploded for all kinds of reasons, and Mahomes hasn't been able to recover in an explosive play sense. 

Two of the other factors that have played into this? Travis Kelce's age, and an offensive line that has been a disaster on the edges. Kelce will be 35 years old when the 2025 season kicks off, and while he's still a valuable player on short and intermediate stuff, he is no longer the deep threat he used to be. And like Hill, he hasn't been replaced credibly in that regard. 

While the Chiefs have had one of the more solid interior offensive lines over the last few seasons with left guard Joe Thuney, center Creed Humphrey, and right guard Trey Smith, the tackles have been a real problem. And now, Thuney is out the door after the Chiefs traded him to Chicago this offseason, to be replaced by second-year man Kingsley Suamataia, so even that is less than certain.

The Chiefs hope that first-round left tackle Josh Simmons from Ohio State will be ready for the regular season after the torn patellar tendon that cost him the last 10 games of his collegiate career, and a shot at playing for the national championship. Andy Reid has recently said that Simmons is further along in the recovery process that was originally expected, and if they get the same Josh Simmons we saw at Ohio State, that will be a massive upgrade on the left side. It doesn't do anything to deal with all of Jawaan Taylor's penalties and blown blocks on the right side, but there's only so much one guy can cover. 

That said, when you watch Mahomes' deep incompletions in 2024, the protection is generally better than one might assume. There are of course those plays in which defenders leak through before they should, but the tape says that it doesn't happen to Mahomes to an unusual degree. More often last season, the problems with deep passes had their generation in one of two causes: Miscommunication between Mahomes and his receivers, and Mahomes throwing late into closed windows. 

“I don’t feel like we got to the goal that we wanted to," Mahomes said in April of the explosive misses. "I think the injuries definitely affected it a little bit, but my goal is to be better and try to give guys chances down the field. I mean, if you look at the only real positive, I think, from the Super Bowl, was the second half [and] me just kind of getting back to we have to throw the ball deep, we have to push the envelope, and you saw Xavier (Worthy) making some big plays down the field. Trying to take positives away from that and from the rest of the season as well is, we got the guys. It’s about me trusting them, making the throws downfield, and letting them make plays.”

Receiver injuries were a big part of the problem in 2024. Marquise "Hollywood" Brown missed all but two regular-season games, though he was back for the postseason. Rashee Rice was lost for the rest of the season after four weeks with a knee issue. Basically, Kansas City's deep passing game was mostly about 32-year-old DeAndre Hopkins, and first-round rookie Xavier Worthy, whose historic speed on the field was something that Mahomes had to take a minute to time up with. Worthy was also learning to deal with NFL defenses. 

Still, Worthy led the team with seven deep receptions on 21 targets for 270 yards and four touchdowns. With a full NFL season under his belt, he has the potential to be Mahomes' most explosive teammate since Tyreek Hill. But that's a projection at this point. 

As is the effect of fourth-round rookie Jalen Royals, an underrated receiver whose tape should have made him a second-day guy. The 6-foot-0, 205-pound Royals isn't the most fleet of foot, but he does everything else well, and he did catch seven deep passes last season on 12 targets for 238 yards and two touchdowns, so there is that potential, as well.

“Obviously, everything looks great right now," Mahomes said on April 23, just before the Chiefs added Royals in the draft. "I mean, getting the guys back healthy as far as Rashee and having Hollywood fully healthy and Xavier in Year 2 – I think the offense has the chance to be really, really good. It’s just about keeping building – I’m excited to kind of have these guys again just with – we’ve had a lot of turnover in the receiving room, and it seems like the core group will be back in its entirety. 

"So, the goal is to try to build on it, and get even better, and try to get back to some of the explosive passing plays that we’ve done in years past.” 

If the Chiefs are to get back to the Super Bowl and try to start another dynasty, they have the defense to do it. The difference in 2025 will be the deep ball, and whether or not it comes back.