It's been a long five months since we've seen Kirill Kaprizov hit the ice, so it might be difficult to remember what it was like to watch him play. But hop in your time machine and go back to this spring, and you'll witness a version of Kaprizov who was playing like an MVP.
After taking a game to shake off the rust after returning from injury on January 13, Kaprizov went on the greatest heater the Wild franchise had ever seen. Over the next half-season, he scored 33 goals and added another 29 assists for 62 points in 40 games. That run represents the most in franchise history, and it's not even close. From January 15 on, only Auston Matthews had more goals (36), and just Connor McDavid (75 points), Nikita Kucherov (72), and Nathan MacKinnon (71) surpassed him in points.
Even with a slow start from a lingering leg injury late in the 2022-23 season, as well as some more missed time near mid-season, Kaprizov still played like a borderline MVP for the entire 2023-24 campaign. His 46 goals and 96 points in 75 games ranked eighth and 11th in the NHL, respectively. On a per-game basis, Kaprizov had more goals than David Pastrnak and more goals and points per game than Jack Hughes and Matthew Tkachuk. Put a pin in those names.
With a monster season like that, the NHL has to fear him as they would any MVP-type player, right? Right?
Not according to The Athletic's annual NHL Player Tiers list, which combines the opinions of Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, and Dom Luszczyszyn, then sends it to NHL coaches, analysts, and the like for cross-checking. For the past two seasons, Kirill Kaprizov has been at the top of their second-tier... which is where he remains entering this season.
"In a different market with a different system and a stronger supporting cast, Kaprizov might get a lot more buzz as a Tier 1 player," explains The Athletic's trio. "He’s on an island. Between the Wild’s defensive brand and their weak offensive support, a 105-point pace is a lot more impressive there than it is elsewhere. While everyone knows how good Kaprizov is with the puck, not enough factor in the degree of difficulty."
To which my only response is, "Uhhhhhhh... weren't you the ones writing the list?"
Hey, I get it. The list is trying to counteract the writer's biases by including 200 hockey men and women in the process, and it seems the hockey world gives Kaprizov (slightly) less thought than the list-makers. Moreover, these conversations can veer dangerously close to Please like my player, which is never a good look.
But also... it's not really about me convincing them to like the player on the team I watch the most. They already do! You're all smart, just trust yourselves!
This is one where the computer kids have it right. The last three players in Tier 1 are all wingers: Hughes (don't come at me, he didn't take a faceoff from February 8 on), Pastrnak, and Tkachuk. We already talked about how Kaprizov outscored each of them on a per-game basis last season.
Now let's take a look at their all-around games with Standings Points Above Replacement for last year:
SPAR 2023-24:
David Pastrnak: 7.6
Kirill Kaprizov: 7.4
Jack Hughes: 5.7 (prorated to 82 GP; 4.3 SPAR in 62 GP)
Matthew Tkachuk: 4.9
Kaprizov didn't get to jump the line after turning in a Pastrnak-like performance and besting Hughes and Tkachuk? It's not like the gap between these players was so massive beforehand. Kaprizov had already had one 100-point season and two 40-goal campaigns under his belt before he stepped foot on the ice last season.
There's also a line in that write-up that just sets off alarm bells. The idea that Kaprizov would be more respected league-wide "in a different market with a different system and a stronger supporting cast" is the last thing you want in Kaprizov's ear if you're a Wild fan. That kind of talk leads to a team starting over a two-decade-long search for a superstar.
Gentille, Goldman, and Luszczyczyn have hope that Kaprizov can finally get the kid of reverence his skills merit this season. "With the Wild starting to grow around Kaprizov, this might be the year he finally makes his mark as an MVP fixture. A spot in Tier 1 is up for grabs."
Let's hope so because being stuck in purgatory sucks.
