New RB Over/Under Odds Could Hint at Broncos’ Round 1 Direction

As we inch closer to the NFL draft, Vegas is fine-tuning its odds. Sitting at No. 20 overall in the first round, the league-wide expectation is that the Denver Broncos will draft a running back.

If not a running back, then a tight end. Although there are plenty of reasons not to draft a running back or tight end in the first round — the depth of the two positions up and down the board the most conspicuous — the most commonly mocked player to the Broncos at No. 20 is North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton.

In most mocks, Hampton would be the second back off the board in Round 1 behind Boise State's Ashton. But could it be possible that more than two running backs could hear their names called in the first round?

According to Pro Football Talk, when it comes to the number of running backs expected to be drafted in Round 1, the oddsmakers have set the over/under at 2.5.

"It could be based on the betting odds, with the over/under set at 2.5 running backs in the first round. Currently the under is a -150 favorite while the over is a +120 underdog at DraftKings," Michael David Smith wrote.

It would be a surprise if more than two backs go in the first round, which is why the 'under' is the favorite, as MDS writes. But if a third were to sneak into the first day of the draft, the two frontrunners would have to be Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson and Iowa's Kaleb Johnson.

Henderson would be viewed more as a bonafide first-rounder were it not for the injury concerns he brings to the table. If he didn't have that history on his resume, I could see Henderson vying with Hampton for the No. 2 running back designation in this draft class.

You know the old saying, though: If 'ifs' and 'buts' were candy and nuts, we all would have a Merry Christmas.

The reality is that Henderson does have that injury jacket, but all it takes is one team falling in love with him to look past those concerns and make him a first-rounder. The Pittsburgh Steelers, sitting at No. 21 overall, right behind the Broncos, will meet with Henderson on a pre-draft visit, so we can't rule it out.

Johnson is another guy who's made an appearance here and there in first-round mocks. A bigger power back, the 6-foot-1 bruiser has some pop and explosion to his game, and he carried the Hawkeye offense.

More likely, Johnson is an early second-rounder, and the same goes for Henderson. But if the Broncos opt to go a different direction at pick 20, and draft a tight end, defensive lineman, or an interior O-line guy, it's hard to imagine either Henderson or Johnson being there at pick 51 in Round 2.

Henderson's backfield mate last year at Ohio State — Quinshon Judkins — could also be in the running as a fringe first-rounder. Considered a second-rounder at worst, a run on backs in the first could see a team get desperate and pull the trigger earlier.

Time will tell. But for now, it seems the running back position has regained its former first-round luster, thanks, in large part, to tip-of-the-spear marquee performances of Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Jahmyr Gibbs, among others, who served as their respective teams' tip of the spear in pushing well into the playoffs last year.

Sean Payton has always preferred a running-back-by-committee approach. That served him well in New Orleans, but right now, his committee is comprised of former late-rounders and undrafted guys who did little to move the needle last year.

The Broncos badly need a talent infusion at running back, which is why it wouldn't be a shock to see them draft two in nine days, and sign one more as a priority college free agent. But if Jeanty and Hampton both fly off the board before pick 20, would that make it less or more likely that Denver panics, and takes, say Henderson?

It's hard to say, but if the Broncos are planning on a running back in Round 1, and two go off the board before they go on the clock, it would be a surprise if GM George Paton works the phones for a trade-back. The Broncos could live to fight another round with added capital and feast on the considerable running back talent available in Rounds 2 and 3.