NFL draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. recently conducted a study on the history of quarterbacks being drafted and their success rate in the league.
Kiper was on a mission to figure out how often a quarterback prospect “hits.” While that may be a fairly subjective standard, Kiper defined a quarterback to be a “hit” if they were playoff caliber.
Very simply asking: "Was he good enough to get a team to the playoffs?"
As part of the study, Kiper also looked at the difference in hit rate depending on where a quarterback is drafted. He shared the results with Field Yates in the most recent episode of First Draft, calling his results “fascinating” and “a little scary if you’re looking for a quarterback.“
History of 1st Round QBs
Kiper’s data goes all the way back to 1970 and is split up into two different eras - from 1970-1993, and 1994-2024.
From 1970-1993, exactly 50 percent of the quarterbacks taken in the first round can be considered hits. Within the first round, 72 percent of quarterbacks drafted in the Top 5 were hits while only 37 percent of quarterbacks drafted after that ended up succeeding.
In the more recent years from 1994-2024, the hit rate on first round QBs goes up to 56 percent. There is, however, a slight drop in success rate at the top of the draft, with 66 percent of Top 5 quarterbacks qualifying as playoff caliber.
Over the last 55 years, 69 percent of the quarterbacks drafted 1-5 ended up being a playoff caliber QB. That mark is under 40 percent for 1st round QBs from picks 6-32.
What does this tell us about ideal draft strategy? It tells us not to overthink it. Don’t get too cute. Your best chance of hitting on a QB is by drafting one when you’re drafting in the Top 5.
Path for Titans and Browns
For the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns, this could not be more relevant. Tennessee and Cleveland are picking number one and number two overall respectively, and both teams are in the market for a quarterback.
Everybody seems to have a different opinion about what they should do. Some people don’t believe in this draft class. Some people think a veteran free agent is a more reliable option. But what I can’t get on board with is the idea that the Titans or Browns should trade back and look to get a quarterback at a different point in the draft. I also can’t get on board with sitting back and “ waiting for next year’s class.” There’s no time like the present.
You never truly know what next year's quarterback class will look like in another 12 months. You also can't guarantee you'll be positioned to get the guy you want. For most NFL teams, drafting in the top five is not a common occurrence. Ideally, it’s something you avoid entirely.
If you are a well-run organization, need a quarterback, and have a top five pick, the decision should be easy. If you do not go get your guy now, you have a much better chance of being back in QB purgatory in the near future.
The Browns have been here before. Cleveland had the first overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Despite a clear and obvious need for a quarterback, the Browns took the consensus top prospect in the edge rusher Myles Garrett.
Garrett has been a smashing success and is on track for a Hall of Fame career. But any Browns fan would still tell you that they’d rather have drafted Patrick Mahomes when they had the chance. Mahomes was the second quarterback off the board that year, but many considered him to be the best available at his position.
I don’t think the Titans or Browns should overthink it. If you like Cam Ward and/or Shedeur Sanders, you take advantage of your position and you draft them. You can figure the rest out later. There are good edge rushers, offensive tackles, and cornerbacks available throughout the entire draft. But as Mel Kiper’s data shows us, you’re better off getting your QB early.
-1716649954-q80.webp "Sean Payton Offers Encouraging Evaluation of Broncos QB Bo Nix")
