NFL Insider Predicts When Broncos Will Overtake Chiefs in AFC West

FOX Sports' Peter Schrager was among a minority of prominent national talking heads to pick the Denver Broncos to make the playoffs in 2024. Even though the Broncos were fielding a rookie starting quarterback in Bo Nix, and despite the omnipresent threat that cornerback Patrick Surtain II presents to opponents, Schrager saw a playoff team.

Fast forward to February 2025, and Schrager was right. The Broncos won 10 games with Nix and made the playoffs, with Surtain winning the Defensive Player of the Year award. Denver also had five players selected to the All-Pro team, the most since 1996.

Despite the success, the Broncos couldn't quite get past the Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah, the Broncos defeated the Chiefs' backups in Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth, but they came up just short in Week 10 at Arrowhead Stadium.

With the Chiefs set to appear in the Super Bowl on Sunday to compete for the chance to three-peat as World Champions, it's fair to wonder how close the Broncos truly are to closing the gap with Kansas City. Opinions and predictions abound, but Schrager went on record with Denver Sports' Andrew Mason by saying the Broncos are still a couple of years out from truly challenging the Chiefs for AFC West supremacy.

"It is a huge gap. It's a huge gap," Schrager told Mason from the Super Bowl in New Orleans. "And that Week 18 game doesn't really count, obviously... When you become a team that can take them in Arrowhead to that point where it takes a freak blocked field goal by Leo Chenal, you know you can compete with them. I don't think they're a year away. I think they're probably two years away, but Sean's got them going in the right direction. And if you have been following that division for 10 years, I think Broncos fans would sign up for that."

Broncos Country is definitely here for that. But many in the fanbase would argue that the Broncos aren't that far off. After all, as Schrager pointed out, it took a "freak" blocked field-goal attempt as time expired for the Chiefs to narrowly vanquish a rookie-led Broncos team at Arrowhead.

Nix had the Chiefs dead to rights. It was a devastating, inexplicable loss, and heads have since rolled as a result of it. But that was the game that the Broncos proved they can compete with the Chiefs.

However, it's a different thing to say that the Broncos can compete with the Chiefs for the division. Not many people are saying that Denver can't beat the Chiefs. Payton is now 2-2 against Kansas City as head coach of the Broncos.

But winning the division will require more than going 2-0 against Kansas City. Sure, that would give the Broncos a huge leg up on winning the AFC West, but having the quality of talent and depth across the roster that allows a team to prevail against the class of the conference — the Buffalos, Baltimores, Pittsburghs, etc. — requires a different level of consistency and reliability, from the coaching to the personnel to the execution.

Such team has to win the games it's supposed to. And not play down to inferior competition and lose upset games.

Reading between the lines, that might be what Schrager means when he says the Broncos "two years out" from truly challenging the Chiefs for the AFC West crown. Payton's squad took a big step toward bridging that gap by getting Nix in the fold.

Now, the Broncos have to continue to build the nest around Nix, and fill a few holes on defense. Fortunately, they have the salary-cap space to do just that this offseason, as well as a full completent of draft picks. But time will tell how right Schrager is about the Broncos-Chiefs rivalry.

"They're not there yet. They're not," Schrager told Mason "I picked the Broncos to go to the playoffs before this season and it wasn't because of my trust in Bo Nix. It wasn't because I thought you were going to have this great season from Surtain. I picked them because I trust Sean Payton. He'll get that thing going."

The ultimate trump card is Payton. Competitive juggernauts have the head coach and quarterback combo locked. That's the hardest problem for NFL teams to solve.

A good head coach will squander his opportunity without a franchise-caliber quarterback. And we've seen plenty of promising quarterbacks fail to launch because of coaching incompetency. The Broncos have both boxes checked, finally.

Andy Reid revealed earlier this week that he plans to return in 2025 as head coach, regardless of how the Chiefs' Super Bowl tilt vs. the Philadelphia Eagles shakes out. With Pete Carroll arriving to lead the Las Vegas Raiders, and John Harbaugh already moving the Los Angeles Chargers' needle with Justin Herbert, the road isn't going to get any easier for Payton and the Broncos.

But this team might be a bit closer than even the savvy Schrager thinks.