Over or Under on Packers’ Projected Win Total?

The Green Bay Packers’ over/under win total at sportsbooks is 9.5. Will they go over?

They had better, because going under could keep them out of the postseason. Last year, the Packers went 11-6 to earn the final wild-card berth in the NFC. The Seattle Seahawks went 10-7 and got to book an early tee time.

Using FanDuel Sportsbook win totals, Pro Football Focus’ Mason Cameron went over or under for all NFC teams. Cameron took the over for Green Bay.

Why?

Under the category of “what needs to go right,” Cameron pointed to first-round draft pick Matthew Golden being the “true No. 1 receiver” the team has lacked since trading Davante Adams.

“Golden provides breakneck speed (4.29-second 40-yard dash) and clutch ability,” Cameron wrote. “He racked up the most receiving yardage (362) in the 2024-25 College Football Playoff. That talent will give Jordan Love the dynamic receiving threat this offense needed to take a step forward.”

While it can be dangerous to bet too much on rookie-receiver production – pardon the pun in a gambling-based story – rookie receivers have made a consistent impact over recent years.

Over the past five drafts, 28 receivers were selected in the first round. The median production:

Receptions: Arizona’s Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2024, 62.

Yards: Denver’s Jerry Jeudy in 2020, 856.

Yards per reception: Minnesota’s Jordan Addison in 2023, 13.0.

Touchdowns: Four (by many).

Golden was the 23rd pick this year. How about receivers taken in that area of the draft? Over the last five drafts, 14 receivers were taken between No. 20 and No. 32. Kansas City’s Xavier Worthy, the 28th pick last year, represents the median production with 59 catches for 638 yards. Last year’s No. 23 pick, Brian Thomas, caught 87 passes for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns for the Jaguars.

FanDuel’s Jim Sannes said take the over, as well.

“Part of this is a bet on Jordan Love, who has put up solid efficiency stats even with a rotating cast of skill players the past two years,” he wrote. “If they can finally find consistent production at wide receiver, I could see the Packers' offense reaching a new level.”

While Green Bay might be better on paper, the on-paper schedule could stand in the way. The Packers will kick off the season at home against the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders, and the closing stretch is daunting.

Another challenge could be a secondary with zero proven depth at cornerback after the potential starting trio of Keisean Nixon, Nate Hobbs and Carrington Valentine.

“He’s going to be missed, for sure,” Valentine said after practice this week of the release of Jaire Alexander. “He was like a brother to me, mentor. That’s the nature of the business, though. I like the guys we got. I got faith in myself, as well. Like I said, it’s going to be fun this year.”

At PFF, Cameron said to take the under on Detroit’s 10.5 wins, Minnesota’s 8.5 wins and Chicago’s 8.5 wins.

“Detroit will have to contend with new coordinators on both sides of the ball,” Cameron wrote. “To make matters worse, they face the second-most-difficult strength of schedule in the NFL next season, featuring 11 games against playoff teams.”

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.