Patrick Mahomes: Navigating a Challenging 2024 Fantasy Football Season
Mahomes is having one of the most puzzling seasons of his career. Despite his undeniable talent, Mahomes’ 2024 campaign has been marred by turnovers, inconsistent production, and a lack of explosive performances. With 13 total touchdowns and nine interceptions, he’s been more of a middle-of-the-pack QB1 than the fantasy juggernaut we’re used to seeing. Let’s break down his fantasy outlook and analyze his big Week 11 matchup against the Bills.
Patrick Mahomes: Start or Sit?
Why Mahomes Has Struggled
- Turnovers: Mahomes’ nine interceptions have been costly in leagues that penalize turnovers. Not all the picks are his fault, but the result is the same for fantasy managers.
- Offensive Woes: While Travis Kelce has regained form, the Chiefs’ receiving corps has struggled with drops and inconsistency.
- Declining Explosiveness: Mahomes hasn’t delivered a four-touchdown game all season and is averaging just over 225 passing yards per game.
Fantasy Take
- In 1-QB Leagues: Mahomes is still a start, but he’s not the week-winner you drafted him to be. You’re starting him unless you have a highly favorable streaming option like C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans or Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins.
- In 2-QB Leagues: Mahomes remains an automatic start. His ceiling, even in a down year, is too high to bench in this format.
What to Expect This Week
Facing the Buffalo Bills, Mahomes has a chance to rebound in what could be a high-scoring game. However, Buffalo’s pass rush and secondary will test the Chiefs’ offensive line and Mahomes’ ability to avoid turnovers.
This Week’s Matchup: Chiefs vs. Bills
The Chiefs host the Bills in what promises to be a marquee matchup. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, and the game could turn into a shootout.
Fantasy Recommendation
Start Mahomes but temper expectations. He’s unlikely to produce a monster game, but 250 passing yards and two touchdowns are within reach.
DFS Angle
Mahomes is a viable option in DFS tournaments but not in cash games. His high price and limited upside this season make him a risky choice in contests where floor matters. Pairing him with Kelce or DeAndre Hopkins could provide a solid stack, though.
Betting Insights: Can Mahomes Deliver in a Big Spot?
Betting Lines
- Spread: Chiefs -3
- Total Points: 48.5
Player Props to Consider
- Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: Despite his struggles, Mahomes is likely to find the end zone multiple times in this matchup.
- Mahomes Over 225.5 Passing Yards: In a competitive game, Mahomes should eclipse this modest yardage total.
- Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions: His turnover woes make this prop worth considering.
Game Bet
- Bet on Bills +3. While the Chiefs are at home, Buffalo has the offensive firepower to keep this close, if not win outright.
Rest-of-Season Outlook for Mahomes
Can He Bounce Back?
The return of a healthy Isiah Pacheco in the backfield and the integration of Hopkins into the offense provide some hope. However, Mahomes’ ceiling appears capped by the lack of consistency in his supporting cast.
- Fantasy Ceiling: Mid-tier QB1
- Fantasy Floor: Low-end QB1
Final Thoughts: A Challenging Year for Fantasy Managers
Mahomes is still a start in most formats, but he’s not the week-winning QB he’s been in years past. As the Chiefs work through their offensive issues, Mahomes is best viewed as a solid QB1 with limited upside.
- Fantasy Advice: Start Mahomes but manage expectations. Look for strong performances from your other positions to make up for his lack of elite production.
- Betting Advice: Focus on props like Mahomes’ passing yards and touchdowns but hedge with an interception bet.
While it’s been a frustrating year for Mahomes managers, his potential for explosive games keeps him in lineups. However, the days of locking him in without hesitation might be over—for now.
You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.
