Training camp is almost here, and Riley Heidt will get a reality check once he plays his nine games against full-time NHL competition. If a player under 20 plays in nine or fewer NHL games, and his team sends him back to juniors, it will delay their entry-level contract (ELC) by one year. However, if they play ten games, their team burns off a year of their contract. Heidt will face the Columbus Blue Jackets twice (Oct.10 and Oct.19), Seattle Kraken (Oct.12), Winnipeg Jets (Oct.13), St. Louis Blues (Oct.15), Florida Panthers (Oct.22), Tampa Bay Lightning (Oct.24), Philadelphia Flyers (Oct.26), and Pittsburgh Penguins (Oct.29).
Heidt is excited about the opportunity to prove himself worthy of playing on an NHL roster. Still, there’s good reason to believe Heidt will need more time to adjust to playing at a higher level, much like The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler mentioned in his comments to Joe Smith. But what if Heidt makes the team out of camp? He will likely face middle-six and bottom-four competition.
Heidt will have the easier matchups when he faces the Jackets, Flyers, and the Kraken.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus’s middle-six and bottom-four average a plus/minus of 25%, which is considered bad regarding goal differential. Heidt will face tough competition against Boone Jenner, a shutdown player. Heidt will also face Ivan Provorov and Erik Gudbranson, who will physically challenge Heidt. Provorov and Gudbranson average 67% when it comes to producing hits. Heidt must bring a solid defensive game because the Jackets’ middle-six averages 64% goals.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers are the next favorable matchup for Heidt because Philadelphia averages 38% plus/minus. The Flyers are still trying to stabilize their blueline and goaltending situation, allowing Heidt to have a breakout game. Heidt must suppress Owen Tippett and Travis Konecny, who average 87% goals.
Tippett and Konecny will drive Philadelphia’s offense. Heidt will be surprised how fast these two will be on the ice against him. The Flyers will also challenge Heidt physically. Nick Seeler and Rasmus Ristolainen are large players who average 73% of Philadelphia’s hits.
Seattle Kraken
Heidt’s least favorable matchup will be the Kraken, as they averaged 41% plus/minus. Heidt will often see three Stanley Cup winners: Jaden Schwartz (2019 Blues), Chandler Stephenson (2023 Vegas Golden Knights), and Andre Burakovsky (2018 Washington Capitals and 2022 Colorado Avalanche). Their experience of shutting down star players will be a factor against Heidt, but they averaged a plus/minus of 29% in 2023-24. Therefore, Heidt has the chance to expose them.
However, Heidt will have a rough night against Jamie Oleksiak (6-foot-7, 256 lbs.), who has always been physically imposing. Oleksiak produced 82% hits in 2023-24. So, expect him to continue being a force. Heidt must show off his speed and elusiveness to avoid body checks from Oleksiak. Brandon Montour is fresh off of a Cup victory with the Panthers. Heidt can exploit the Kraken’s third pair with Will Borgen and Ryker Evans, who averaged 37% hits and 40% plus/minus.
Minnesota’s games against the Lightning, Penguins, and Blues are moderate matchups that can still be favorable for Heidt.
St. Louis Blues
The Blues are a bizarre team but also a borderline contender. They added Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway with two offer sheets that the Edmonton Oilers didn't match. They have gotten a fresh start and could make key contributions to add depth to St. Louis’ core group. Also, old friend Ryan Suter signed a one-year deal after the Dallas Stars and Wild bought him out.
Holloway should join Brayden Schenn and Alexey Toropchenko because that would be a natural checking line with physicality. I don’t see Holloway playing on the Blues’ second line immediately. These three average 80% of St. Louis’s hits, which would be favorable against Heidt if the Blues want to physically punish Heidt by being aggressive on the forecheck.
Suter and Justin Faulk will likely find chemistry together due to their average hits of 69%. Wild fans have seen how much Suter has become hated in Minnesota because of his rivalry with Kaprizov. The Blues will use that to their advantage.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins may not make the playoffs, even though Sidney Crosby is still a star player. Pittsburgh averages 61% plus/minus, and they will count on Evgeni Malkin and Michael Bunting for secondary scoring because they average 85% goals. Kevin Hayes, Lars Eller, and Anthony Beauvillier average 62% goals but have a 34% plus/minus, which Heidt can exploit. Still, that’s a pretty hefty load to face for Heidt. Ryan Graves, Kris Letang, Matt Grzelcyk, and Sebastian Aho average 79% plus/minus.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay will look different with Jake Guentzel now that Steven Stamkos is no longer part of the team, but it will still be good. The Lightning averaged 58% plus/minus, but they are still considered a playoff team. Anthony Cirelli will be asked to shut down Heidt due to his 71% plus/minus and 56% hits. Cirelli is the Lightning’s version of Joel Eriksson Ek. Ryan McDonagh returned to the Lightning from the Nashville Predators. McDonagh posted an 87% plus/minus. McDonagh replaces Mikhail Sergachev, who they traded to the Utah Hockey Club. Erik Cernak will be carrying the physical load with 95% hits.
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg and Florida will be the most difficult matchups for Heidt.
The Jets have a 70% plus/minus. They excelled in the defensive game and are a forever thorn in the Wild as a neighbor they hate and can’t get rid of. The Jets will target Kaprizov like they target Heidt. They will likely deploy Adam Lowry, old friend Nino Niederreiter, and Mason Appleton.
Winnipeg averages 66% goals and a plus/minus of 69%. The Jets also average 81% hits, which they will use in their favor against Heidt. Their bottom-four group will be a tough matchup for Heidt. Dylan Samberg, Neal Pionk, Logan Stanley, and Colin Miller averaged 69% hits. Wild fans forever hate Stanley due to his rivalry with Kaprizov. He’s going to be a pain with Heidt.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers are fresh off a Cup victory and will look to repeat in 2024-25. They have a plus/minus of 72%, which makes them the most difficult. Heidt will face more chaos when he goes up against the hard hitters and agitators Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett. Tkachuk and Bennett average 89% hits, which is more physical than the Jets with Lowry’s line. Add Evan Rodrigues’ 69% hits, and you will still have a physical line.
Anton Lundell will also challenge Heidt. He backs up Bennett and has an 80% plus/minus. Former Wild Dmitry Kulikov and Niko Mikkola will likely be on the ice against Heidt. They averaged 86% hits, which was vital to their Cup run.
Heidt has a lot to do to make the most out of his nine games. Heidt will likely struggle to adjust to the NHL’s high-volume pace and physicality. Heidt will probably score his first NHL point from an assist while going up against the Jackets, Flyers, or Kraken.
Can Heidt maximize a nine-game NHL stint?
I don’t see Heidt breaking through offensively once he faces physically imposing teams like the Jets, Blues, and Panthers. Reality will hit him in the face. Heidt can take his learning experience when he returns to juniors or should play for a year in Europe. If Heidt exceeds expectations, then Guerin should consider playing him and making players like Marcus Johansson and Frederick Gaudreau expendable.
