For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the offseason is in full swing. They have hired a new offensive coordinator, they got a first hand look at draft prospects at the Senior Bowl and they are gearing up for the NFL combine in a few weeks.
The talent acquisition phase is underway and that revolves around the NFL Draft. For the Bucs, much of this involves upgrading their defense. Pass rusher, cornerback and linebacker are the biggest needs on this roster and those positions should all be addressed this offseason.
With no stud linebackers expected to go as high as 19th overall where the Buccaneers will have their first pick, it seems likely they prioritize this position in free agency. This leaves just two likely targets for the Bucs in the first round; pass rusher and cornerback.
…or does it?
Jason Licht has been running the show as General Manager in Tampa Bay for a decade. He has an established history and clear patterns when it comes to drafting first round picks. So much so, we can accurately project what prospects he will or won’t target early on.
We have also had six years of Todd Bowles with the Bucs as both head coach and defensive coordinator. We know the type of players he likes and how he wants to utilize them. This can also help us predict the future in the coming draft.
Knowing what we do about this draft class and what the Bucs brass typically looks for, I have come to a conclusion. A conclusion that some fans will not want to hear. That is that the Buccaneers will not draft a cornerback in the first round of the 2025 NFL draft.
This is unfortunate because this is actually a very good cornerback draft at the top. There are a few top tier prospects such as Travis Hunter and Will Johnson and then there’s a second tier of corners who will likely be drafted in the first round such as Benjamin Morrison, JahDae Barron and Shavon Revel. These are all prospects who I like, but am nearly ready to write off for the Buccaneers.
With the case of Hunter and Johnson, it’s only a matter of availability. These are special talents who I believe Licht would sprint to the podium to draft. Unfortunately, I expect both to be long gone by the time the Bucs have a chance to pick.
This leaves Morrison (Notre Dame), Barron (Texas), and Revel (East Carolina) as potential targets. All three bring good coverage ability as well as ball skills and should do well in the Bucs zone heavy defense. But there’s one problem which they all share.
All three of these players look like good, not great, NFL athletes. Why this is a problem is that the Bucs only draft elite athletes with their top picks. Specifically athletes who are in the 90th percentile or higher relative to their position.
Granted, we haven’t had the NFL combine yet. Any of these players could surprise us with athletic testing. But keep in mind that Morrison and Revel are both coming off season ending lower body injuries which will likely impact their ability to test.
There are also questions with their individual games which will make it less likely the Bucs target them. Morrison struggles with tackling. Barron is on 5’11 which is below average height by Bucs standards. Revel is a small school prospect without the benefit of the pre-draft process to prove that he belongs. So even if they hit testing thresholds, none of these guys would be without question marks.
All these things combined and I have a hard time seeing a pathway for any of these players coming to Tampa. If Johnson unexpectedly slides to 19 or one of these other guys falls to the second round, that becomes a different story. However, there is no reason to believe that this will happen.
What’s more practical is that we all just start adjusting expectations now. The Bucs won’t draft a corner in the first round this year and that’s okay. There are plenty of pass rushers to like and there are decent corners to be had in free agency. Plan your offseason dreams accordingly.