The truth about Josh Jacobs' first season with the Packers and why his performance is sparking debate

Josh Jacobs finished his first season with the Green Bay Packers with 1,671 scrimmage yards and 16 total touchdowns. Based on these simple metrics, his immediate impact was obvious—and that's why he made the Pro Bowl.

At the same time, some analysts don't think his individual efficiency was there to justify any type of comparison with Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. ESPN's Bill Barnwell used EPA, for example, to indicate that Jacobs was even less efficient than other Packers running backs, Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks.

The truth is in the middle, as always, but digging deeper into Jacobs' numbers and how the Packers' offensive line performed in run block gives us a better understanding of how importante Jacobs was, and where he wasn't as impactful.

What the offense does

Barnwell mentioned EPA to demonstrate that Jacobs was not as good as Barkley and Henry, but EPA is for the most part a collective measurement. It's a metric to evaluate how many points each and every play expectedly adds to the team. But when a team loses EPA on a play, it doesn't necessarily mean the running back himself was bad. Scheme, run block, and situation all matter.

The Packers, for instance, were 23rd in run block win rate according to ESPN. The Baltimore Ravens were third, and the Philadelphia Eagles were ninth. Obviously, Henry and Barkley would have more favorable situations to be more efficient.

Regarding the Packers' own running backs, that's true. Brooks and Wilson had higher EPA/rush and success rate than Jacobs.

EPA/rush:

• Chris Brooks (0.13)
• Emanuel Wilson (0.09)
• Josh Jacobs (-0.06)

Success rate

• Emanuel Wilson (50.5%)
• Chris Brooks (50%)
• Josh Jacobs (39.2%)

However, Jacobs had much more volume—three times more carries than Wilson, and ten times more than Brooks. Usually, volume tends to affect efficiency. Moreover, opposing defenses would generally be more prepared to play the run when Jacobs was in the backfield, creating additional challenges.

If EPA and success rate for running backs have a limited scope, true individual stats are what really give us a fair idea of how a player at the position performed.

What the player does

On a play-by-play basis, Josh Jacobs had a truly elite season for the Packers. He was fifth in PFF rush grade, only behind Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, Jahmyr Gibbs, and tied with James Conner.

In yards after contact per attempt, Jacobs was eighth (3.45), ahead of players like Jahmyr Gibbs (3.34), Saquon Barkley (3.17), and Aaron Jones (3.00).

Jacobs was also fourth in missed forced tackles (67), only behind Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and James Conner. Saquon had 44 more rushing attempts and forced five fewer missed tackles.

Saquon evidently had a monster season, but his game is (and has always been) much more reliant on explosive plays.

PFF also has a signature stat called elusive rating, which measures success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking. Jacobs was eighth (90.1), ahead of Derrick Henry (88.5), Jahmyr Gibbs (80.6), and Saquon Barkley (63.7).

Before the season, there was some level of concern that Josh Jacobs wouldn't replicate what Aaron Jones used to do as a receiver. Those concerns are in the past. He was third in PFF receiving grade among running backs and 11th in yards per route run (1.36), ahead of Aaron Jones (1.29), Derrick Henry (1.08), Saquon Barkley (0.93).

That all sounds pretty good.

The only area where Jacobs isn't elite is explosive plays. His style is much more based on efficiency and play-by-play consistency. In breakaway rate (run plays that went for 15 or more yards), Jacobs is 32nd (21.2), while Jahmyr Gibbs (41.8), Derrick Henry (41.8), and Saquon Barkley (41.6) are all in the top 5. Nonetheless, Jacobs' number is still better than Aaron Jones' (19.1) for the Minnesota Vikings.

Why the Packers signed Jacobs

Before free agency last year, I wrote a piece that the Packers should add Saquon Barkley and pair him with Aaron Jones. Those are two explosive runners, and splitting snaps and carries among them would limit the risk of injuries, an area where both had their concerns.

The Packers went a different route, signing Jacobs and releasing Jones. If you look at the yearly average of their contracts, you could think the Packers didn't make a good deal in hindsight. Barkley signed with the Eagles for $13 million per season, with Green Bay paying Jacobs $12 million per season. Derrick Henry is making $8 million a year with the Ravens.

But there are multiple reasons that are still applicable to the thought process. First, Jacobs is the youngest among them—he is 26, Saquon is 27, and Henry was 30 at time of the decision (he's already 31 now).

And particularly in the comparison with Saquon, the contract structure was much more team-friendly for the Packers. Green Bay gave Jacobs a four-year, $48 million contract, but just the first season was guaranteed. Now, the Packers have essentially three team options. Meanwhile, the Eagles gave Barkley a three-year, $39 million contract, with $26 million guaranteed and just one unguaranteed year, in 2026.

More than that, after how the Aaron Jones' experience went, the Packers wanted a player with a smaller track record of injuries, and someone capable of carrying a heavier workload without concerns. Barkley had a healthy season after all, but it was impossible to know that in March.

It's doubtful (to say the least) to think that Barkley would have had as much success as he did with the Eagles in Green Bay, based on how the offensive line performed in run block.

Saquon and Henry were obviously amazing players, and they had impressive seasons for their teams. But Josh Jacobs is not an afterthought, and his impact for the Packers was real in 2024.