It's been a boring offseason for the Minnesota Wild. But that’s always how things would be with Bill Guerin approaching the last year of being in cap hell. With Minnesota’s cap restrictions, he can't make any drastic changes to improve the team heading into the 2024-25 season. In a worst-case scenario, that could lead to Kirill Kaprizov’s departure if the Wild can’t convince him they’ll contend. However, what if Kaprizov wants to be patient with Guerin and the Wild?
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Like the rest of the fanbase, I don’t want to see Kaprizov go. I didn’t want to write about which teams would be interested in him if he chooses not to extend with the Wild. However, someone had to write about the worst-case scenario as we approach the end of his contract. Conversely, what if Guerin manages to extend Kaprizov right before training camp starts, which is unlikely to happen?
What kind of contract would Kaprizov sign? Before we predict that, let's remember that the salary cap is going up by $4.5 million, which is crucial because it gives Guerin cap space as he leaves cap hell. It’s time for Guerin to stop over-committing to older players who will take up more cap space and go all in to keep Kaprizov in Minnesota. Guerin must risk everything to keep him. Ultimately, Kaprizov is the definition of high risk/high reward!
Charley Walters wrote in the Pioneer Press that Kaprizov expects to secure an extension with a $15 million cap hit. Are you willing to stomach paying Kaprizov $15 million to stay in Minnesota? Some people feel $15 million is ridiculously high to pay any player in the NHL. However, when it comes to keeping the only superstar you’ve ever had, you should consider taking the risk.
Let’s look at comparable contracts around the league.
Toronto Maple Leafs superstar Auston Matthews signed a four-year, $53 million extension with the Leafs last summer. Matthews only signed for four years. Why didn't he sign an eight-year max extension? It might not matter because the Leafs have made Matthews their new captain, taking over for John Tavares. Brad Treliving will do his best to keep his best player in blue and white. Can William Nylander help encourage Matthews to extend again?
Nylander signed an eight-year, $92 million extension with the Leafs in January. Nylander did the opposite of what Matthews did. Does Nylander have more optimism that the Leafs will defeat their playoff demons? Will the next four years of Nylander’s contract be a bargain where he’s unlocking a new gear? Remember, Zach Hyman produced his first 50-goal season playing with Connor McDavid. Nylander has significantly more skill than Hyman. There’s no doubt Nylander can produce significantly more goals.
Elias Pettersson signed an eight-year, $92.8 million extension with the Vancouver Canucks, with a $11.6 million cap hit. If anything, this is a team-friendly deal executed by both parties. Pettersson played injured during the playoffs, which set his game back. Now that he's healthy, he'll be able to help the Canucks make the playoffs and yield better results.
Nathan MacKinnon is another example of a team-friendly deal. He signed an eight-year, $100.8 million extension worth $12.6 million annually. MacKinnon is seeking another finals run to secure another Cup. MacKinnon just finished his best season yet, producing 51 goals and 89 assists (140 points) as he's reached a new tier of stardom. MacKinnon finished with 8 more points than McDavid, highlighting his impact as the Colorado Avalanche’s star player.
Leon Draisaitl recently extended his contract with the Edmonton Oilers for eight years, $112 million. With a cap hit of $14 million, Draisaitl is officially the highest-paid player in the league. The Oilers showed him they're a contender, and he committed to them. Draisaitl’s contract also sets the tone for McDavid's next contract, which will be astronomical.
Now that we've gotten into Kaprizov’s comparables, here are their point-per-game (PPG) totals.
- Draisaitl: 1.18 points
- Matthews: 1.15 points
- MacKinnon: 1.14 points
- Pettersson: 1.01 points
- Nylander: 0.88 points
Guess who has more points than these five players? Kaprizov’s 1.19 points puts him ahead of Draisaitl. While it's only 0.01 points, it's still impressive that Kaprizov is producing at a superstar level on a Wild team that lacks high-end young talent outside of Matt Boldy and Brock Faber. Put respect on Kaprizov’s name! To be fair, Draisaitl occasionally benefits from playing with McDavid. While no one should question his skill level, what if Draisaitl played for the Wild instead of Kaprizov? Would he produce similarly? Probably not.
What about Matthews and the core four in Toronto? The Leafs aren't the same without Matthews, but when you regularly play with Marner and sometimes Nylander on the powerplay, expect to score many points. Matthews is the best goal-scoring forward in the league; he almost scored 70 goals last year. Would Matthews have scored 69 goals with the Wild? Would Kaprizov score 69 goals with the Leafs?
MacKinnon's on Matthews’ tail for point production. The Leafs and Avalanche are similar teams, but the Avs have proved they can win in the playoffs. Kaprizov would love to play with the great talent surrounding Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen. While captain Gabriel Landeskog was injured, the Avs got deep talent.
Pettersson is barely a PPG player but still has his best years ahead of him. Pettersson is known more for his playmaking than his goal-scoring, but he has produced 30 goals in the past three seasons. With the best years ahead of him, Pettersson’s combination of skill, vision, and age suggests he can evolve into a more well-rounded offensive threat in the coming seasons.
Nylander isn't a PPG player like the rest of the bunch, but he's managed to string together back-to-back 40-goal seasons. Nylander, 28, is in his prime as an elite goal-scorer, so the Leafs signed him to an eight-year deal. However, is Nylander scoring 40 goals with the Wild? Kaprizov has scored 40 goals in the past three seasons. However, Kaprizov would've scored 50 goals last year if he played a full season. If you put Kaprizov on the Leafs, he'd break goal-scoring records playing with Matthews.
So now we have a better idea of what Kaprizov’s extension will be, and Guerin should pay Kaprizov what he wants and deserves! Consider this: The Wild signed Kaprizov to a team-friendly deal with his $9 million cap hit. Would Kaprizov accept another team-friendly deal? Kaprizov wants to secure his bag and win a championship.
Would the Wild's core five – Zeev Buium, Brock Faber, Marco Rossi, Jesper Wallstedt, and Danila Yurov – convince Kaprizov to stay? If anything, expect Kaprizov to sign a deal similar to Matthews’ contract. Kaprizov will likely sign another five-year deal, which gives them the window to develop prospects and become a better contender.
Kaprizov has two seasons remaining on his contract with the Wild. The worst-case scenario is that the Wild fail to show Kaprizov they're serious about being a true contender, and Kaprizov requests a trade to a better suitor. But what if Kaprizov chooses to extend in Minnesota? How long would his extension be, and how expensive would it be? Regardless of the contract details, extending Kaprizov is always the end goal!
