At the rate things are going now, not offering Marco Rossi a new contract before this season may cost Bill Guerin and the Minnesota Wild valuable cap space next summer when NHL Free Agency begins July 1.
The 23-year-old Austrian will be a restricted free agent next summer. He's thriving on the Wild's top line with three goals and six points in three games. If this continues, Rossi could command a considerable payday as he plays out the final year of his entry-level contract – maybe a bigger payday than Guerin expected.
Rossi cemented himself as an NHL player during an 82-game rookie campaign in 2023-24, finishing with 21 goals and 40 points – fifth among rookie skaters. His 21 goals were second among rookies to only Connor Bedard. However, Guerin didn’t reward Rossi for his outstanding year with an extension.
Instead, the Wild reportedly shopped him this offseason, while teammate and fellow rookie Brock Faber saw an 8-year $68 million payday. With Faber locked up long-term, the Wild know they have a top-pairing defenseman for years to come, and Rossi is proving that he’s becoming the top-line center experts projected him to be when he was drafted ninth overall in 2020.
Even though Faber and Rossi were outstanding rookies in the same lineup, Guerin and the organization never appeared to question Faber's potential. But it was a different story with Rossi. At 5-foot-9, 182 lbs., he’s had to constantly prove he belongs in the NHL since being Guerin’s first draft choice as Wild GM.
Guerin took Rossi and Marat Khustnidinov in that draft, and both will head into the offseason as RFAs. Khusnutdinov is also a center and an intriguing talent. However, he has yet to hit the same stage of development or deliver the same impact in each game, albeit in a much smaller sample size. Guerin could also extend him a qualifying offer this offseason, but Rossi should be the focus here.
The Zach Parise/Ryan Suter dead-money saga has limited Guerin’s ability to maneuver freely these last few seasons. Wild fans never grew into accepting that situation. Still, nobody feels sorry for the Wild having $14.7 million in dead cap again this season – it’s a decision Guerin made, and did so knowing the consequences.
It's forced Guerin into making big decisions that reveal his priorities. Guerin wasted no time in locking down Faber this offseason, and he should have. Then, with the little cap space he had left, he focused on the team's atrocious penalty kill unit by adding Yakov Trenin.
The Wild went into this season with the league’s highest dead-cap hit. One final season of cap hell from the buyouts, and next July 1 will be "Christmas," according to team owner Craig Leipold. Although the money situation won’t be completely over, owing Parise and Suter a combined $1.7 million 2028-29, it'll feel like peanuts compared to the $14+ million hits they’ve buckled under.
Perhaps Guerin hesitated to sign Rossi with an eye on cap ammunition for "Christmas." Entering next offseason, the Wild are projected to have around $15-18 million available with eight roster spots to fill. That seems like a license for the Wild to spend. However, it may cost Guerin more in the big picture, considering Rossi appears to be taking another leap.
Guerin wanted Rossi to prove he was a top-6 forward. However, he may have discovered he has another top-line center to flex with Joel Eriksson Ek, and if that's the case, the price tag on Rossi will be much higher than Guerin ever anticipated. If only Guerin had the opportunity to take a similar approach with Rossi as he did when he extended Ek to that team-friendly deal in 2021.
Eriksson Ek’s extension looks like a steal today, not only for what he does for the team, but for a top-line center in the NHL. They don’t grow on trees, and if Rossi continues this current trend, he may command No. 1 center money next summer.
It’s not that signing Rossi this offseason was a risk-free assessment. Until last season, he hadn’t shown he would develop. Shortly after the Wild drafted him, it was uncertain whether Rossi would even play hockey again after complications from COVID-19 threatened his life. Reading between the lines, there was something that made the front office not sold on him, even after rebuilding his strength and rediscovering his game.
But we're already seeing the downsides of not rolling the dice with Rossi. Through six games, he’s recorded six points with three goals, and his faceoff win percentage is 53.7%, a big jump from his career 44.8% mark entering the season. Rossi’s linemates Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello have benefited from his strong start. All three have recorded multiple multi-point games as the Wild remained unbeaten through Tuesday.
Rossi will enter RFA status at the age of 23 and is poised to be among the youngest and most productive centers seeking a payday. Guerin’s options are to extend Rossi by making him a qualifying offer at the team’s terms before July 1 and hoping he accepts. However, Guerin could not make an offer and let Rossi do what he wants, or trade him at the deadline or the draft.
Honestly, it’s too early for any predictions. But if Rossi’s start is any indicator of what’s to come, the Wild could have found another No. 1 center, and right now, he’s getting more expensive by the day.
