Update on Colts' QB1 race could be good news for Vikings' comp picks

A recent update on an offseason quarterback battle in the AFC could quietly be good news for the Vikings as they look way ahead to the 2026 NFL draft.

Daniel Jones, who finished the 2024 season with Minnesota after being released by the Giants, signed with the Colts in free agency this spring and is competing against former top pick Anthony Richardson for the QB1 job in Indianapolis. Why does that battle matter for the Vikings? Well, if Jones plays a certain amount of snaps in 2025, he would likely deliver a fourth-round compensatory selection to Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and company. But if Jones finishes below that snap threshold, the comp pick might fall to the fifth round or lower, depending on how the formula shakes out.

The early returns are promising. Jones reportedly had a solid offseason program for the Colts, while Richardson watched from the sidelines after aggravating the surgically-repaired AC joint in his throwing shoulder. Thus, Jones "has already taken a significant lead in what was supposed to be a wide-open quarterback competition," according to The Athletic's James Boyd. There's no set timetable yet for the return of Richardson, the former No. 4 overall pick who has struggled with injuries and inaccuracy as a passer over the last two seasons.

For those unfamiliar with comp picks, teams are awarded additional selections in the draft if they lose more qualifying players in free agency than they sign. There's a complicated formula that's mostly based on the contracts signed by those players, with playing time and potential postseason awards also factoring in.

Over the Cap's Nick Korte, who is one of the leading experts tracking compensatory picks, currently projects the Vikings to receive an extra third-rounder for losing Sam Darnold, a fourth-rounder for Jones' departure, and a seventh-rounder in next year's draft. With six picks of their own, that would bring the Vikings to nine total selections next year.

For the second year in a row, the Vikings are expected to receive the most valuable compensatory pick of any team, sitting just inside the top 100 overall. This past year, it was for losing Kirk Cousins to the Falcons. This time, it'll be for Darnold signing with the Seahawks.

Then there's the fourth-rounder projected for Jones, which will depend on how much he plays for the Colts (the exact threshold is unclear, but it's somewhere in the 25-50 percent range). And lastly, the Vikings could even end up with a third comp pick, this one at the very end of the draft, if Trent Sherfield (Denver) or Johnny Mundt (Jacksonville) wind up playing a significant role with their new team.

There's still obviously a long ways to go until the 2026 draft, but this is something Adofo-Mensah and the Vikings have kept in mind during their roster-building process. Two of their big free agent signings, Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, don't factor into the comp pick formula because they were released by their previous teams. And bringing in Jones late last season, even though he never played a snap in a Vikings uniform and then departed in free agency, could wind up paying off.