The Minnesota Vikings probably don’t want to get rid of Sam Darnold after a monster season, but they may not want to mortgage the franchise to keep him either.
That is likely to leave the Vikings with a tough call: either pay Darnold big money despite having drafted J.J. McCarthy with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, or hand over the keys to what could be a Super Bowl team to a second-year QB who will not have taken a regular season snap to that point.
Neither situation is outright terrible, but neither is ideal. However, there is a third option that Darnold probably won’t like, but which buys Minnesota time.
“The Vikings could split the difference by using the franchise tag on Sam Darnold,” Alex Ballentine of Bleacher Report wrote on Thursday, December 19. “It would give McCarthy a true sit-and-learn season that isn’t marred by injury while giving Darnold the opportunity to prove to NFL teams that this year is no fluke.”
Tagging Darnold would mean paying him north of $40 million in 2025, a four-fold salary bump over the $10 million contract he signed this year that provides the Vikings with a significant portion of the QB’s value despite all the statistical success he’s had this season.
But inking Darnold to an extension would mean $140.5 million over four years, according to Spotrac’s latest projections. That is a massive commitment to a quarterback who is only 27 years old and has a golden arm, but spent his first six years in the league carrying around the reputation of a first-round draft bust (the New York Jets selected him No. 3 overall in 2018).
It is also worth noting that while Darnold has been excellent in 2024 — throwing for 3,530 yards, 29 TDs and 11 INTs on the way to a 12-2 record — his success is at least a partial creation of head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Sam Darnold Needs Certain System to Be Successful in NFL
O’Connell’s offensive scheme and the elite talent around Darnold on the roster are both necessary pieces in the equation that has led to the QB producing a borderline MVP-caliber campaign.
“O’Connell is treating 2024 Darnold like 2018 [Jared] Goff because Darnold has the same weaknesses; he doesn’t see the field fast and can panic when pressured. But he also has the same strength — a downright beautiful arm,” Benjamin Solak of ESPN wrote last week. “The Vikings need all those intermediate and deep routes (34% of Darnold’s throws go at least 10 yards downfield) to maximize Darnold’s talent for high-difficulty throws, as well as the elite route running and ball tracking of Justin Jefferson, and the similar tool kit of his sidekick in Jordan Addison.”
Other teams around the NFL are just as aware of Darnold’s strengths and weaknesses as the Vikings, which could impact the amount of money the QB can make on the free agent market should he end up there come March.
That said, there are other offenses in the league that can maximize Darnold’s talent and shade his flaws, which means a long-term and lucrative deal is still likely assuming he avoids injury or a precipitous decline in play over the next month or two.
All of that brings the discussion back to a franchise tag designation in Minnesota, which the Vikings can employ to kick the can down the road on a long-term decision under center — probably the ideal option of the three the team has in front of it.
