The Minnesota Vikings’ decision on Sam Darnold has sparked debates about the best action for both sides. Darnold is due for a significant raise from his one-year, $10 million contract in free agency. That is if he reaches the open market.
The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported that the Vikings want Darnold back.
“After conversations with a team source, one thing is clear: The Vikings want Darnold back in Minnesota for 2025,” Russini wrote on December 28.
Bleacher Report’s James Palmer projects a robust market for Darnold, but the insider also revealed at least some within the Vikings organization expect an attempt to retain him.
“I see Sam Darnold staying. That is an option right now. To my understanding, the conversations have not happened yet. Obviously, they’re focused on 2024. But there are plenty of people around the league, and there’s some people in that building, that believe they’re going to try to pursue Sam Darnold to stay. And how that happens – whether it’s a contract, whether it’s a franchise tag – we’ll see what ends up happening,” Palmer said during a live stream on December 26.
“Obviously, he’s playing extremely well in the situation that he is in. His relationship with KOC [Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell], with the way that he has two dominant weapons in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and you see the game-winning drives. Think he has like four of them this year. He’s just playing outstanding football.”
Darnold has set career highs for passing attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns. He is also on track to finish the season with the campaign with career-best completion percentage, passer rating, and Total QBR, per Pro Football Reference.
He is the third quarterback in NFL history to win at least 13 games in the first year with his new team and can set the benchmark with one more victory.
That he had not performed to this level until this season is a significant factor.
Sam Darnold Enjoying Vikings Tenure
“With Sam Donald, my understanding is, obviously, he’s been through a lot in what happened in New York, what happened with the Panthers,” Palmer said. “He’s going to be looking not just for the biggest cash grab, in a sense. He’s going to be looking for the best situation for him as well with everything that he’s been through.”
Darnold was the No. 3 overall pick by the Jets in 2018. The Jets traded him to the Panthers in 2021. After two seasons, including a 4-2 record as a starter in 2022, Darnold signed with the San Francisco 49ers in free agency in 2023.
O’Connell cited Darnold’s 49ers tenure as a reason he was optimistic about the QB’s prospects coming into the season.
Darnold has also said he “Wouldn’t want to be anywhere else.”
Sam Darnold has led the Vikings to 13 wins, tied for the second most in organization history. What does it mean to him? “Nothing.” This team wants more.
Postgame interview with Darnold in Seattle.
“They have a ton of cap space, by the way; the Vikings,” Palmer said. “Things have been handled extremely well since they moved on from Kirk Cousins.”
Over The Cap projects the Vikings to have $76.4 million. Darnold has been projected to see $100 million-plus on his next deal. OTC also estimates that the franchise tag for QBs will come in at $41.3 million.
There is the issue of stunting rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy.
Opportunity Could Lead Sam Darnold Elsewhere in Free Agency
“Are you delaying a top-10 pick?” Palmer asked before asking. “I think I look into it and say J.J. McCarthy’s 21 years old. He’ll be 22 in January. If you delay that to some extent in keeping Sam Darnold, I wouldn’t think that’s the worst thing in the world that you could do in terms of keeping your quarterback now and still looking for the future at the same time in the way it works.”
Palmer projects up to six teams seeking new quarterbacks. Some will have to look beyond prospects at the top of the draft to find theirs.
That could still leave Darnold in the catbird seat.
“Things are shaping up really well for Sam Darnold,” Palmer said. “He is kind of the bell of the ball. He is the one that is going to be the top of this class that is somewhat limited. It’s not a deep free agent quarterback class, which also helps Sam Darnold as well.
“I think one aspect that comes into that is what the head coach and the system that they come from at some of these potential landing spots – we’ll get into the Raiders we’ll get into the Giants – but say those become openings and say they hire someone from the Sean McVay tree, that is part of the – he spent time with Kyle Shanahan with the 49ers. Obviously, Kevin O’Connell from that group. If it’s a system that he’s familiar with, and we’re seeing him thrive in, that could be something that sets up well for Sam Darnold.”
That would likely include the Vikings, where O’Connell remains firmly in Darnold’s corner amid the QB’s career resurrection.
The Vikings will face competition for Darnold.
“There could be as many as six teams, maybe, interested in possibly landing Sam Darnold. So I think he is just in a really, really interesting spot. Heading into this free agency – potential free agency – unless he stays. And we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out, we’ll see how the postseason plays out. But with the way he’s playing, he is the most desired quarterback out there by a long shot.”
