What COULD A Rachaad White Extension With The Bucs Look Like?

Rachaad White is a useful, talented running back who lost his starting gig with the Bucs to a more talented rookie in Bucky Irving last year. Entering a contract year, it is logical that White will most likely play out 2026 before reassessing his options in free agency in 2026.

But is there another path?

The running back market is not kind to non-elite backs for the most part. Rarely does a backup see find a deal that puts them in position for a big pay day.

Conversely, the Bucs run game was objectively at its best last year when both he and Irving were on the field together in 21 personnel packages – also known as the “Pony” package. And next to the “Sonic and Knuckles” duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit, teams like the Bucs are proving that if you don’t have a Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry bell cow, building a strong complimentary stable is the way to go for a top tier backfield.

Despite criticisms leveled his way that he is not a good back, White is an effective runner when he is put in a position to succeed. Once the Bucs shifted to a gap-based attack last year he thrived, averaging 4.7 yards per carry from Week 8 on. On top of that, White is well known and regarded for his skills as both a pass catcher and a pass protector. His 1,232 receiving yards are fifth-highest among all running backs since he entered the league as Tampa Bay’s third-round pick in 2022 per Pro Football Reference.

The Bucs are known for keeping around useful backups long after their rookie deals expire. The team just re-signed Anthony Nelson to his third contract. And the team will likely be looking to extend other members of its 2022 draft class this offseason, including tight end Cade Otton, right tackle Luke Goedeke and cornerback Zyon McCollum.

So, what could a Rachaad White extension potentially look like if the team wanted to keep him instead of moving on from White in 2026 and just elevating Sean Tucker to RB2?

Statistical Modelling And Finding Comps For Rachaad White

I first look to statistical models I have created to find a pure valuation when trying to create a contract projection. For running backs I look at a large-scale model that looks at 16 different factors including age, draft round, rushing volumes and metrics as well as receiving values and metrics. We even factor in blocking ability as measured by Pro Football Focus.

The models are bisected into a three-year range as well as a platform year range and scale for the current salary cap landscape. For Rachaad White the two projections I have is $6.69 million APY for the three-year model and $5.43 APY million for the platform year model. The average of these two is $6.06 million. rounding for how the NFL typically sets contracts would be a $6 million APY, which would be the 15th highest in the league currently according to Over The Cap.

The program also looks to find comparable players who have signed contracts since 2020. Here are the three players the model found with the most similar production over a three-year span.

All three of the players found were fellow third-rounders signing deals at around age 26. White ranks second in rushing yards and first in receiving yards and catches, but last in touchdowns and third in first downs and explosive runs. Of the three, the Antonio Gibson comp is very compelling because Gibson was also known as more of a receiving back than a great runner. His deal was for three-years and $11.25 million total with $5.3 million guaranteed. Inflating that for the rise in salary cap this year would translate to $12.3 million total and $5.8 million guaranteed.

The model also looks for platform year comps and returned these results.

These comps are not as strong overall but do help shape a bottom-level band. Combined with the three-year comps, it shows the projected APY from the statistical modelling is too high. At this point though I like to look at the average of the three methods (statistical modelling, three-year comp average and platform year comp average) to start to home in on where I will eventually land. This puts me at a $4.46 million APY, just a little shy of the three-year comp average.

Final Projection For A Hypothetical Extension For Rachaad White

A three-year deal based off the above number, rounded to the nearest half million gets a $13.5 million total. That’s a little north of the Antonio Gibson deal, even with cap inflation. That makes sense as it represents the upside Rachaad White would have to give up in not going to free agency. Adding in 2025, where he is already under contract, the deal from a team perspective is four years at an average of $4,226,500 per year. From a reporting standpoint it would make White RB20 in terms of APY.

White is already due $3.406 million in non-guaranteed base salary. For it to make sense for his side he would need that fully guaranteed plus around an additional $5.6 million for a total close to $9 million. This would also closely follow a guarantee structure used with Bucs receiver Chris Godwin in each of his last two deals. It also gives him an extra $1.1 million cash flow this year.

The cap breakdown could look something like this:

This would help keep the Bucs running back room intact for 2026 at the very least and give the team the opportunity to move on with cap savings as early as 2027 if they want. It also helps give the team a small, but not insignificant $1.6 million in cap relief for 2025.

Admittedly, the odds of this kind of extension are low.

From White’s perspective it caps almost any upside he can create this year. But it does offer him some security.

Najee Harris is coming off of a three-year stretch in Pittsburgh where he posted over 1,000 more rushing yards and still only managed a $5.25 million guarantee in Los Angeles with the Chargers. Would White be willing to make that trade off?

I don’t know.

Would the Bucs be willing to commit an extra $6 million for White to secure one extra season from him, with minimal options on 2027 and 2028?

Again, I don’t know. But I think the deal represents a solid trade option for both sides.