The Green Bay Packers will be without their top cornerback, Jaire Alexander, for the rest of the season — unless, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported, he gets back in time for the Super Bowl if the Packers get there.
More likely than not, the team will suffer without its second highest-paid player, and it's nearly impossible to add external pieces at this point of the season to replicate something close to Alexander's performance.
Therefore, head coach Matt LaFleur and defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will have to find answers from within. But not necessarily within the cornerback room.
The good news: They have already done it to a certain degree. Jaire Alexander's last snaps were in Week 11 against the Chicago Bears. Since Week 12, the Packers defense is second in EPA/play and ninth in success rate. Even in dropback EPA, where you could think a drop would be obvious, the team is second as well.
"It's not how the secondary has done it, we've done it as a team and we've done it as a defense," Hafley said last week. "I think that's the biggest thing that we're stressing to these guys right now. When we're defending the pass, it's not just put it on the DBs. It's what we do as a defense to make sure that we're playing well back there."
Defensive structure
When you think about Hafley's defensive roots, you would certainly imagine a single-high centric defense. Guess what, the Packers lead the NFL in cover 2 rate in 2024. That shows his adaptability to do what's needed with the players he has.
"We're rushing well, we're sending pressure, we're running good games, we're dropping into different zones," Hafley mentioned about what they have to do to replace Jaire. "We're taking a lot of pride in how we disguise things right now. The players are taking a lot of pride in that right now, so we're doing it together, and I think that's the biggest key to it all right now."
Safety room
Jaire Alexander has the second best passer rating allowed amongst Packers' cornerbacks, right behind Carrington Valentine — and usually with tougher assignments. The worst number for any secondary player is Javon Bullard's, and he is the option to start at nickel with Jaire out, because Keisean Nixon goes to the boundary.
But the options have been more limited because safety Evan Williams is out too, and the starting safety duo with Williams (69.7) and Xavier McKinney (58.1) have allower a lower passer rating when targeted than the cornerbacks. Schematically, they are the key to make the defense work.
Without Williams (and Zayne Anderson, who left the Minnesota Vikings game early with a concussion), Bullard had to move back to deep safety, and it was rough from that point on.
But if Evan Williams gets healthy for the playoffs, as Matt LaFleur expects, there's a way to put on the field a group that has had better results. Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes could be the outside corners, with Keisean Nixon in the slot. The other option is Valentine and Nixon in the boundary, with Bullard in the slot. For Hafley's scheme, though, having McKinney and Williams in the backend is imperative to protect the cornerbacks.
Passer rating allowed by Packers DBs:
- Xavier McKinney 58.1
- Evan Williams 69.7
- Carrington Valentine 77.9
- Jaire Alexander 79.9
- Erick Stokes 96.3
- Kesiean Nixon 100.9
- Javon Bullard 123.4
Upfront
Another key to protect the cornerbacks is putting pressure upfront. Against the Minnesota Vikings, there wasn't much success with the edges. Rashan Gary had only two pressures, Kingsley Enagbare and Lukas Van Ness had zero.
Good for the Packers that the bottom of the depth produced better. Brenton Cox led the team with four pressures, and Arron Mosby added two more late in the game.
"It's fun to be around this group. They work hard, they are hungry, they get along together," Hafley had said. "And it's not like the backups are just sitting there, no, they're getting ready to play. We're going to need that, I mean, we've got a lot of football left. We're going to need all those guys and we need to make them feel part of that too."
The path to win without Jaire Alexander is harder, especially against playoff-caliber teams. But if the rest of the secondary is healthy and Hafley is able to scheme coverages and pressure packages, it's far from impossible.