Thursday night is rapidly approaching and so is the showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. This is a pivotal game in the race for the NFC South division crown. A win puts the Bucs in the driver seat, but a loss would mean that the Falcons pass them in the standings.
This is a game that was brewing all offseason. With the Bucs as three time consecutive division winners and the Falcons as the favorite to win the NFC South this year, everyone knew this would be a big game. Now the teams finally get to take the field against each other in the primetime.
So who will tip the scales in this game? Both teams are loaded up with big names and both have playoff aspirations, so there are a lot of potential battles to watch. Here is my X Marks the spot – X Factor matchup for this week five game against the Falcons.
Baker Mayfield vs Falcons Safeties
As we’ve seen this year, this Buccaneers offense will only go as far as Baker Mayfield will take them. Case and point, he was awful against the Denver Broncos and the offense only mustered 7 points, whereas he was great against the Philadelphia Eagles and the offense was nearly unstoppable. Mayfield is the heart of this entire offense.
It isn’t unique that the quarterback is the most important part of a given offense. There is a reason they call this the most important position in all of sports. Quarterbacks touch the ball on every play and are typically the person responsible as to where the ball will go. However, this is more true of Mayfield than it is of some other quarterbacks.
The Bucs are a pass first type of football team. Without the dominating run game that teams like Detroit or Baltimore have, the Buccaneers have to move the ball through the air to open up their running game. This puts more weight on the shoulders of the quarterback.
Against a Falcons defense like this, it will require Mayfield to play his best football. They have been excellent against the pass this year, allowing the 5th fewest passing touchdowns and 13th fewest passing yards this season. It is a defense that is built on their secondary and everything else works off of that.
This philosophy makes sense when you have the personnel that the Falcons do. Specifically looking at the safety tandem on this team. The Duo of Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons might be the best pair of safeties in the entire NFL.
Bates was a pro bowler and a second team all pro last season. He led the Falcons with a career high six interceptions and also racked up a career high 132 tackles. He is on the short list, which includes Buccaneers safety Antione Winfield Jr, when it comes to talking about who the best safety in the NFL is.
His counterpart, Justin Simmons, has an impressive resume as well. He is a two time pro bowler and four time second team all pro who has thrived playing in the nickel. He set a career high in interceptions two seasons ago with six himself.
Both of these players are ball hawks and both can play a physical style against the run. The are well rounded, do it all playmakers who are the foundation of the Falcons defense. Mayfield should do everything he can to stay away from them.
Of course, he can’t avoid them entirely. After all, the Bucs have big time playmakers at pass catcher and they can’t let Atlanta’s defense dictate their approach. It is a fine line of respecting a pair of elite safeties and knowing how good the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are and getting them the ball.
If Mayfield can avoid turnovers against this pair and get his stars the ball, then this game will favor the Bucs. However, one interception could be back breaking in a game like this. Even without it, Bates and Simmons have the coverage ability to limit the damage the Bucs receivers can do.
This game will be all about Mayfield taking what is there and not forcing the ball. If Bates shades Evans over the top, then that will mean fewer deep shots to him. If Simmons stays with Godwin, then that might not be the primary target that Mayfield looks to. This could mean big receiving days for the likes of Rachaad White, Cade Otton and Whoever is healthy enough to suit up as the Bucs third wide receiver this week.
