The Denver Broncos are still on the road, preparing to take on the New York Jets. The Broncos are the underdogs to the 2-1 Jets, as they were against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road, where the Broncos got their first win.
It is another tough defense for the Broncos offense to face. The Jets represent the fourth great defense Denver has faced to start the season.
That has led to some trying times for Bo Nix and the Broncos offense. The Broncos' defense has been great, primarily in pass defense, as their run defense has been among the worst in the NFL, so far.
Today, we're getting into the points of emphasis for the Broncos in Week 4.
With the issues the Broncos have had through their first three games, the Jets are a tough team that can attack them. The Broncos must identify and attack these points of emphasis as they are determined to get their record even at 2-2 with a third road game before going back home for the next two tilts at an even .500 standing, instead of 1-3, as it will put them in good position for the rest of the season.
Offensive Focus
Offensively, the Broncos' wide receivers need to find ways to get open. The Jets allow the lowest average of separation for a defense, at 2.8 yards, with the second lowest at 3.1 yards.
At an individual level, the three-year NFL average has been 2.8 yards of separation. Sauce Garnder and D.J. Reed are at 2.1 and 1.9 yards of separation, with Brandin Echols and Michael Carter II at 1.9 and 3.1 yards of separation. Carter, the nickel corner, is the only one giving up slightly more separation than the average.
For the Broncos receivers, Courtland Suttin is averaging 2.2 yards of separation, the lowest on the team, with Josh Reynolds second lowest at 2.6. Lil’Jordan Humphrey is at 3.2, and Devaughn Vele is at 4.4, the only two receivers to qualify.
It's worth noting that all eight of Vele's targets came on passes under the 10-yard mark, with an average air yards at 2.1, so those short routes at or behind the line of scrimmage inflate his separation, especially when they came against off-coverage.
The Jets are known for their tight coverage, and the Broncos' receivers have found it challenging to create separation. Despite Gardner's struggles in coverage this season, he continues to play tight and could bounce back at any moment.
The Broncos are aware of the urgency to find ways to break free from the Jets' tight coverage. This is a key area Denver needs to address to improve their offensive performance.
Defensive Focus
The defense's task is clear and strategic: prevent Breece Hall from dominating the game. The Broncos need to step up their game against the run, as the Jets are likely to rely on Hall's speed and agility for a win.
It's important to note that the threat is not just from Hall, as rookie Braelon Allen has also made a strong start. The Broncos are focused on containing both these threats to improve their defensive performance.
While the Broncos have done well against more power-style backs like Allen, Hall's speed, quickness, and agility are where they have struggled. Meanwhile, Allen has been the Jets' more successful back, with a positive 2.2 rushing EPA, while Hall is negative 9.2 and averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
The Broncos can’t allow Hall to have his bounce-back game and find a way to slow him down. The task of doing that got even harder with the news that Alex Singleton tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season.
Despite being tied for the lead in the NFL in missed tackles and leading in missed tackles for 2023, Singleton is a capable run defender, and the rest of the Broncos' linebacker corps has concerns in that department.
This is a battle of weakness against weakness, as the Jets have the 14th-worst success rate running the ball, and the Broncos boom-or-bust run defense with the 13th most runs of 10-plus yards allowed, but also having the fifth-highest run stuff rate. Again, Hall's style is similar to that of the other backs the Broncos have struggled against more in the first three games, while Allen’s style has been more of the boom.
Bottom Line
Offensively, the Broncos have to find a way to get open against the tight coverage the Jets utilize. That is due to individual talent and the defensive scheme.
The Broncos defense has the task of being consistent against the run, no matter the style of back they're playing, and slowing them down. They want to force the Jets to throw the ball, as the Broncos have had one of the best passing defenses in the NFL this season.
