Could Cade Otton’s Injury Change The Bucs’ Run Game?

Much Internet ink has been spilled covering the Bucs’ run game this year. Everyone loves a zero-to-hero story and Tampa Bay’s ground attack has been just that.

After ranking 32nd in rushing yards per game and 27th in EPA/rush in 2023 they are now fifth and eighth, respectively. Now, there are many reasons for the team’s improvement in running the ball this year.

Drafting a special back who is one of the best in the league at forcing missed tackles?

That helps too.

Getting more out of last year’s starting running back by changing the running scheme from zone to gap?

That was the biggest help!

But you can add to the list the development of Cade Otton into becoming one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL to that long list.

And now it looks like the Bucs may be without their best tight end in Dallas on Sunday. Otton is currently listed as a game-time decision with a knee injury.

Cade Otton’s Ascension As A Blocker

Cade Otton was always capable of being a very good blocker. I noted it in the preseason of his rookie year.

Unfortunately, those glimpses never fully materialized in year one for Otton. Last year was more of the same. Otton’s run block grade from Pro Football Focus went from a slightly below average 59.6 in his rookie year to a poor 51.7 in his sophomore campaign.

Interestingly enough, when you parse through the types of run plays you find that Otton was better blocking on gap runs than zone runs last year. Otton struggled to work laterally while maintaining strength through his base to still maintain leverage and drive to keep his zone clean in Dave Canales’ mid-zone scheme.

That trend continued early in this season. But the glimpses from his 2022 preseason were still there.

But as the Bucs have leaned into this new physical, gap run scheme and all of a sudden Otton has turned into one of the best blocking tight ends in all of football. PFF has him ranked tied for seventh among all qualifying tight ends with a 64.9 run block grade.

He has become a legitimate weapon as a puller/wrapper on the Bucs’ lethal counter game. His targeting on the move is superb as offensive coordinator Liam Coen has weaponized him as a split flow blocker on zone runs as well as a wham blocker on influence gaps where he earholes nose tackles.

In short, Otton’s improvement this year has been in just about every facet of the game, both obvious and non-obvious. And if he is absent on Sunday it could have a real impact on how the Bucs run the ball.

Enter The Bucs’ TE2 – Payne Durham

Payne Durham has seen his playing time go up as of late. Prior to the team’s Week 11 bye, Durham was averaging 13.9 offensive snaps per game. Since the bye week that number has just about doubled to 27.5

Offensive coordinator Liam Coen joked recently that Durham has been in his ear as the Bucs’ run game has improved about the team becoming more of a two-tight end style offense.

When asked about Tampa Bay’s increased use of 12 personnel on December 5, Coen said: “Payne Durham thinks we’re a ‘13’ [personnel] team now. All the sudden, every time we get into heavier personnel, he just gives me a nudge like, ‘Let’s keep going.’ It’s just trying to utilize personnel in different ways and get everybody that’s up and active and available playing for us.

“Sometimes you can get defenses a little bit more static in some different ways when you get into some bigger personnel groupings – we’ve done it over the last two weeks a little bit more than maybe we had [earlier] in the season. [It is] just something else that they maybe have to prepare for, that may be something that we can continue to carry. Whether it’s a ‘12’ personnel run that we’re used to running and it fits within maybe ’13,’ [we are] just trying to add to that menu as we go.”

There is no doubt Durham provides the Bucs with a more varied and impactful menu of skills as a blocker than any of their receivers. But he is nowhere near the talent that Otton is. Where Otton has become a targeted weapon in those moving situations, with Coen essentially saying, “I want you to build a head of steam and blow up the end man on the line,” or “wrap and explode into some poor second-level soul” he will be hard-pressed to expect the same of Durham.

Payne is much slower crossing the formation than Otton, lacks Otton’s targeting skills, and can often let the defender he is supposed to clock undercut him. He also lacks Otton’s athleticism that helps him maintain his balance through contact and allows him to remain connected through the entirety of the rep.

Bucs May Shift How They Run – And Maintain Recent Success

This is all to say there is a good chance that if Cade Otton can’t go on Sunday night in Dallas the Bucs may make some tweaks to how they run the football. That’s not to say they will be less successful, mind you. But in thinking through the pros and cons of Payne Durham’s skillset as a blocker, if Coen were to remain true to his “players over plays” mantra then he may stick with the team’s successful gap system, but adjust what type of gap plays they run.

To maximize Durham’s skillset the Bucs will likely motion him in split flow or as a wrapper less, and ask him to base block, seal the strong side edge or double team more. That most likely means more duo blocks. It also means the team can still run counter trey that worked so well against the Chargers last week.

But you will likely see less pull-lead or power to the weak side with Durham leading the run. Similarly, the Bucs may call less split flow that would count on Durham to seal the backside on the move or run motion lead with him out in front. It doesn’t mean the run game won’t  be effective. It just means they will likely have to be effective in a different way.

If there has ever been a Bucs offensive coordinator who knew how to get the most out of his players, it has absolutely been Liam Coen. And Sunday is shaping up to be another challenge for him to maximize Durham while maintaining Tampa Bay’s successful run game.