Kansas City Chiefs second-year wide receiver Rashee Rice has been dominant through the first three games of the 2014 season, racking up nearly 300 yards receiving which leads the entire team. Furthermore, Rice also leads the entire NFL in yards after the catch with 186 of his 288 yards receiving coming after the catch.
While Rice's start has been an impressive one and a much-needed boost for a Kansas City offense that has suffered from some untimely injuries to begin the season, it has come at the cost of Chiefs' star tight end Travis Kelce's production. For many years, Travis Kelce was considered the "YAC King" and used to be dominant in those same areas that Rice is now putting up big numbers.
With Rice's ascendence carrying over from the end of last season into looking like a bonafide No. 1 receiver this year, and Kelce experiencing yet another slow start to his 2024 NFL regular season, it seems to mark a significant shift in the team's dynamics on offense. Rashee Rice is overtaking Travis Kelce as the No. 1 option in Kansas City's offense.
Will Rashee Rice keep carrying this much of the offensive load for the Chiefs all season?
The shift reflects both Rice's impressive ability, but also a fading of Kelce's dominance on a game-to-game basis. Of course, Kelce will still be a heavy contributor on this year's team and will still have his moments in the coming weeks and into the NFL postseason. That said, Rice has been the go-to target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes to start the season and that was not the case even towards the end of last season.
This idea isn't only supported by production, either. There has also been a clear trend in who the Kansas City Chiefs have targeted on offense. Through three games, Rice has been targeted 29 times. As for Kelce, he hasn't been targeted more than five times in a game this year, which is the first time that's happened since 2017 when Alex Smith was still the quarterback.
On third downs, Rice has also been the superior option, leading the team in receptions for a first down. It's not just the raw numbers that indicate Rice has become the No. 1 option, but it's how he is used. Any time the Chiefs need a first down or a big play, Rice has been money over the middle of the field. Third downs have always been an area in which Travis Kelce would always come up big because even if the original plan didn't work you could always count on Mahomes and Kelce going off-script and making something happen. Once again, that hasn't been the case this year and Kelce hasn't gotten hardly any third-down looks.
Kelce is still drawing a lot of attention from defenses and he will still see a lot of double-teams, leading to opportunities for others like Rice, but that's always been the case. Kelce has always been one of the most feared players by NFL defenses because of his knack for always finding a soft spot in the defense. So, Kelce facing doubles was never before an excuse for why he wasn't producing. It only appears to be now because he is no longer producing at the same rate.
Even in 2023, Kelce was still the first option in this offense despite a slow start and an injury prior to Week 1 that affected him throughout the year. That reality seems to be changing, though.
The torch seems to be changing hands—from Kelce to Rice as Rice's blend of speed, agility, and athleticism has propelled him into being Mahomes' top choice in crucial situations. After a strong rookie campaign and breakout last postseason, Rice has quickly built trust with Mahomes that's been extremely beneficial to the offense.
Now, this development doesn't diminish Kelce's importance to the offense. In fact, it should be viewed as a positive by Chiefs fans that Kansas City appears to have discovered a special player in Rice—a player who can get the ball in big moments and make explosive plays after the catch much like a younger version of Kelce. The Chiefs were always going to have to find players to ease the transition into life after Kelce and Rice is certainly doing so.
Ultimately, with defenses now needing to respect Rice's ability and explosiveness, it allows Kelce the opportunity to find himself in more favorable matchups and to capitalize on certain defensive looks.
As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues and if Rice ends up establishing himself as the primary target in Kansas City's offense going forward and into the future.
