Jacob Middleton’s Contract Comes With New Expectations

Of all the Minnesota Wild's offseason moves this year, re-signing Jacob Middleton was among the most controversial. He has warts in his game, but that isn't a huge issue when he's making $2.45 million. His new contract, which pays him $4.35 million annually, will make his drawbacks far more difficult to overlook. 

The defender's new contract kicks in in the 2025-26 season, but he'll be burdened with the expectations of that cap hit this year. In many people’s minds, Middleton will have to live up to a new set of projections to be worth his new deal. 

It will be difficult for the Wild to get value on Middleton’s $4.35 annual salary, but they’ve already signed the deal. Therefore, the Wild must figure out how to best utilize their asset with a new set of expectations.

2023-24 Season Shows Reasons For Concern

People who don’t like Middleton's new contract have reason to feel negatively about the deal. The defender played a solid season for the Wild in 2022-23 but followed it up last year with a campaign that didn't inspire confidence. 74 pairs of defensemen played at least 400 minutes together in 2023-24. Middleton and Faber ranked 57th in expected goals (xGoals%) and underperformed in several key metrics.

(Stats provided by Money Puck)

Faber fared much better with his other common D-partner, Jonas Brodin, making it a concern that Middleton couldn’t produce positive results with the Calder Trophy Runner-up. Based on Dom Luszczyszyn’s player value model, the defender's play doesn’t live up to his new deal.

Getting the Most Out of Middleton

The player value model raises significant concerns about Middleton in the later stages of his contract. It also shows a sharp decline between the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. The defender didn’t forget how to play effective hockey in a year. The Wild can position the blueliner to get back to getting value out of him as a player.

Health

Ensuring that Middleton has a healthy season should be one of the chief priorities for Minnesota’s training staff. Middleton played 80 games last year, so it may seem like injuries are not a massive issue for the player. However, as Michael Russo reported in the Athletic, he dealt with injuries last year.

Middleton managed to play through his injuries, but knee issues didn’t help his production and level of play. His most common defense partner, Brock Faber, also played through an injury last season. We shouldn’t make excuses for any player, but the whole defensive squad dealt with injuries last year. 

Even the players who still skated dealt with nagging injuries. It isn’t hard to imagine that a clean bill of health for Middleton and all of the Wild defensemen would go a long way in producing better results for the bruising blueliner.

Consistency

Whenever a player becomes a part of a team’s core, one of the traits that makes them worth a large sum of money is consistency. You need to know a player can produce on a night-to-night basis because their cap hit is too significant to bench or send down to the AHL. Middleton struggled with consistency last season and will need to improve in the coming years.

“It was an inconsistent year for me, personally, I think, and I’d just like to get back to that (being consistent),” Middleton told The Athletic.  “That’s what I like to do, be a consistent guy on a nightly basis, let you know what you’re getting, and that’s something that I really want to focus on going forward here.”

One of the most obvious ways to demonstrate this lack of consistency is by looking at Middleton’s offensive output in 2023-24. The defensive-minded defenseman put up 25 points in 80 games last season but did so in hot and cold streaks.

Middleton had six streaks last year, during which Minnesota’s opponent held him off the scoresheet for five or more games. The Wild aren’t paying Middleton to be an offensive dynamo, but completely disappearing from the scoresheet isn’t ideal.

The Wild can increase Middleton’s consistency by ensuring the defensive corps has more continuity this season. Middleton played most of his minutes paired with Brock Faber last year, but he also played with two other pairings (Jared Spurgeon and Dakota Mermis) for over 100 minutes. Middleton has to lock down his consistency, but Minnesota can support that by giving the team more continuity.

Deployment

The most straightforward way the Wild can return Middleton to form is to return him to a partner he’s had success with. Jared Spurgeon is just the man for the job. While the Faber-Middleton pairing registered relatively poor analytics, Middleton and Spurgeon were the opposite in 2022-23. During that year, 81 defensive pairs hit the 400-minute mark. Middleton-Spurgeon placed 25th in xGoals%.

They were even better when isolating for defense, placing ninth in xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes. Before Jared Spurgeon’s injury, the Middleton-Spurgeon pairing was also off to a hot start in 2023-24.

The Wild will spend a lot of resources ensuring Jared Spurgeon stays healthy this season. Minnesota can expect better results out of Middleton if a long-term reunion for the pair is in the cards.

Outlook on the Future of Middleton’s Contract

There are many ways the Wild can position Middleton as a more positive player in 2024-25 and beyond, but there are also reasons for concern. 

Spurgeon and Middleton are productive together, but Spurgeon positively impacts the game regardless of his defensive partner. From 2015-16 until 2022-23, Spurgeon and his defense partner placed top 15 in xGoals% every season. Spurgeon paired up with Ryan Suter, Alex Goligoski, and Middleton. 

If Spurgeon can get great results regardless of his partner, it seems like he’s the one driving the positive outcomes. Middleton needs to find a way to live up to the contract independent of his chemistry with Spurgeon. 

Middleton will likely have to find chemistry with another defender anyway. Middleton’s new contract carries him on the Wild through the 2028-29 season. Spurgeon will already be turning 35 this year. It’s unlikely he’ll still be a top-four defender by the end of Middleton’s deal. 

On the positive side, the salary cap should rise significantly throughout Middleton’s deal. What seems painful now might be inconsequential when the deal is over, even if it doesn’t work out. 

Regardless of the outcome, Jacob Middleton’s contract will likely be one of the most consequential of Bill Guerin’s roster construction. The new expectations money brings could turn Wild fans against Middleton, or he could prove to live up to the deal and continue to be a fan favorite. 

Middleton has tools that make him an appealing asset when playing at his best. It will all depend on how the defender can bounce back from last year and whether the Wild can put him in a position to succeed.