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Matt Boldy Announced His Intentions On Opening Night

   

Matt Boldy didn't hit the ground running last year. Sure, he got two points in the first two games of the 2023-24 season, but an early injury derailed him. Boldy would miss two weeks and start slowly upon returning. Through 12 games, the 30-goal scorer scored just once, though he did have seven assists. 

Once he found his game again (which, coincidence or not, happened exactly as the Minnesota Wild changed coaches), he looked like a star again. He scored 28 goals and 61 points in 63 games, an 82-game pace of 36 goals and 79 points. It was a tantalizing look at what could have been if he could only put it together for a full season.

Boldy got another early-season injury, suffering a lower-body ailment that put him at week-to-week. If you were dreading a repeat of last year, though, don't worry. The first game of the season wasn't just a good game for the scoring winger. It was an announcement of his intentions: This is the breakout year.

It wasn't just the three points he scored; it was his 12th such game in his career, which is already ninth in franchise history. It was that Boldy was the catalyst of all three goals. His goal was a missile from the slot, a shot that got off so quickly Elvis Merzļikins barely reacted. Boldy won a board battle cleanly to start the sequence that ended in Joel Eriksson Ek's goal. And for his finale, he fired a beautiful cross-slot pass to Mats Zuccarello for a one-timer goal.

Some players get numbers, and some stir the drink. Boldy looked like the latter last night. Beyond his scoring plays, Boldy looked like an offensive catalyst all night. He set up multiple plays where his shooters couldn't quite get a handle on the pucks served to them. Boldy nearly had a breakaway 43 seconds into the game, broken up at the last second by Zach Werenski.

He thrived in transition, entering the zone with ease on the power play and taking on a lot of puck-carrying responsibility on his line. We have to credit Eriksson Ek, who set a perfect screen on Boldy's goal that won't show up on the stat sheet, and Marcus Johansson, who had two assists. However, you couldn't walk away from the Wild's 3-2 win without thinking Boldy was the best player on the ice.

And that's a sheet of ice that, as if you needed reminding, included Kirill Kaprizov, who did not appear to be quite in mid-season form.

Fans might have raised eyebrows when general manager Bill Guerin recently expressed his belief that Boldy could score 50 goals and 50 assists. Kaprizov hasn't even done that yet. 

Almost nobody does. It's something that only 11 players have accomplished in the Salary Cap Era. As impressive as that list is, it's perhaps more so when you think of the names that aren't on that list. Steven Stamkos. Auston Matthews. Patrick Kane. Nikita Kucherov. Those are all MVPs, and Guerin thinks Boldy can hit a milestone they haven't touched.

But we've got reason to believe that Boldy is trending to hit that level. Since 2007-08, 103 forwards logged 3000-plus minutes between ages 20 and 22. Looking at Evolving-Hockey's Goals Above Replacement metric, we can see his per-minute rating is 11th.

Below is the top 25. I've marked Hart Trophy winners (MVPs) in blue and Hart finalists in red.

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Again, look at some of the names that are in Boldy's realm who aren't highlighted. Brayden Point, Jack Hughes, Johnny Gaudreau, and Sasha Barkov are all in that top 25, with Boldy looking down at the other two. Not everyone who shows this well in their early 20s goes onto these heights, but Boldy being in this group certainly gives him a chance.

And the timing is also right for an offensive explosion from Boldy. Look at how many breakout seasons have come at age 23. David Pastrnak had his first 40-goal, 90-point season at 23. Barkov jumped from 27 goals and 78 points to 35 and 96. Kucherov went from a Boldy-esque stat line of 30 goals and 36 assists to a 40-goal, 85-point season. Draisaitl jumped from career-highs of 29 goals and 77 points to an age-23 season where he joined the 50/50 Club.

You can get cute and note that Boldy's on-pace for 82 goals and 246 points, and that's always a fun bit. But we're not talking about that. It's not the numbers; it's the way Boldy looked to start the season, and that was like a player on a mission to take control of the Wild's offense. If this was Boldy announcing what's to come this season, this will be a fun year in the State of Hockey.

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