As the New York Rangers continued to look for answers to their defensive crisis, the Blueshirts made a trade at the deadline. Carson Soucy was brought in from the Vancouver Canucks for the third-round pick they acquired in the Reilly Smith trade, but Soucy has been much maligned since his debut in the iconic Rangers sweater. Criticism for the Viking, Alberta native has been abundant, but is it justified? There are players where the eye test and the analytics disagree, and Soucy fits that niche category.
Eye Test
There is no doubt about Soucy’s issues when you watch him. The stream of giveaways during his time with the Rangers was clear: 13 giveaways to just two takeaways headlined how poor he was with the puck. On top of several poorly-timed pinches at the point, there was never a time the Rangers’ top pairing felt comfortable. They were forever chasing the game when on the ice, forcing the Rangers to play behind the eight-ball.
Soucy also looked visually slow, getting beaten to loose pucks and losing foot races. Whether down to compete level or just general issues on his skates, those concerns grew through the fanbase as the season continued, and it ultimately resulted in the Rangers faithful losing all faith in the player. The reasons are justified, but the analytical side contradicts everything the fans have criticized.
Pairing Analytics
While fans were unhappy about Soucy’s season in Manhattan, the numbers don’t agree. According to Natural Stat Trick, New York had three defensive pairings play 100 minutes after the trade deadline. Of those three, the Soucy-Adam Fox pairing ranked last in goals for per 60 (GF/60) at 2.86. They weren’t scoring as much as you would like from a top pairing, which is rightfully a concern. However, everything else this pairing could do seemingly worked.
They were the best of the three in goals against per 60 (GA/60) with 1.23. That was the 13th-best in the NHL from the trade deadline to the end of the regular season. The pairing had a goals for percentage (GF%) of 70. That was tied for 11th-best in the NHL in the same time frame. That’s just their base stats. This pairing gets even better when we look at the expected numbers.
Soucy-Fox had an expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60) of 3.24, which was the sixth-best in the NHL post-trade deadline. Its expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) was 1.88, the eighth-best in the league in the same time frame. As for its expected goals for percentage (xGF%), it was the third-best in the NHL after March 8, with 63.28%. Only Adam Pelech-Noah Dobson, and Victor Hedman-Darren Raddysh had a better xGF%.
There is a problem with measuring pairing stats, though. Sometimes, they’re driven by a star player. Regarding the Rangers, we know Fox is the driving force of the defensive unit, so Soucy could be the beneficiary of his linemate’s success. It’s a valid argument, so what happens when we isolate Soucy from Fox and compare him to the other defensemen the Rangers used after the trade deadline?
Soucy’s Isolated Stats
Soucy’s 2.39 GF/60 is seventh among the Rangers defensemen who were used after the deadline, but his GA/60 is 2.15, the third best among that group. That’s the sign of a strong defensive defenseman. His GF% was the sixth best on the roster, with 52.63. That’s not bad, with 50% being the offsetting average. That’s not a struggling defenseman, although those aren’t ideal stats for a top-pairing defenseman.
His expected numbers were more convincing. His 2.56 xGF/60 was second on the Rangers, only to Fox after the trade, and xGA/60 was just 2.25, the best among Rangers defensemen. Combine that with the second-best xGF% on the roster (53.24%), and Soucy stacks up as a significant success for the Rangers analytically.
The Disconnect
It’s rare, but not unheard of, for the analytics and the eye test to disagree on a player’s talent. Jake Gardiner and Dougie Hamilton are prime examples of this in the past. They were analytical darlings who struggled to get the recognition they deserved on the ice for whatever reason. However, they were offensively minded and made defensive lapses. Soucy is the opposite.
In a new season, opinions may change with less bitter feelings from the fans towards the team. It will also help the player to have an extended run with the team under a new coach, with a preseason to settle in. Fans may have their minds changed by Christmas this year, but for now, the disagreement between the underlying stats and the eye test continues.
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