Not too long ago, it felt like former general manager Jeff Gorton raced up to the podium to select from TPS Turku, Kaapo Kakko.
It’s been about five years since that happened. The Finnish winger was expected to be a major piece of the New York Rangers’ future and help transition them out of the rebuild. But the draft hype at second overall hasn’t even been close to met – and now the end to his Blueshirt tenure seems that it will come sooner than later the way things are trending. But Kakko will likely have one last chance to prove himself, as GM and president Chris Drury hasn’t found a trade package enticing enough.
Reviewing Kakko’s Young Rangers Career
While Kakko has shown some flashes of his potential, for the most part, he has been disappointing in his five NHL seasons. Sure, some blame goes to the player – but let’s not exonerate the coaching staff and the Rangers’ development system in place either.
It started in his rookie season when David Quinn was the head coach. Kakko was expected to make the team and provide the Blueshirts with a young spark. Although, it was expected that there would be growing pains along the way – perhaps the rookie was given too much leeway and the organization did little to support and put him in the best positions to succeed.
Analytically speaking, the 2019-20 season was an unmitigated disaster. Kakko was one of the worst players in the league, posting an expected goals (xGF) rate of 39.41 percent, according to Natural Stat Trick. Sure there was the disruption of COVID-19, but that’s a sample size of 66 games. The good news was Quinn stuck with him in the lineup and he gained valuable experience in the best hockey league in the world. But the then-teenager probably should have been sent down to the American Hockey League (AHL) at the beginning of that season. It would have allowed him to dominate the minors while playing first-line minutes, which could have helped with his confidence.
However, Kakko was only going to get better thanks to the several dozen NHL games of experience. While he did, the marriage with Quinn wasn’t ideal. The former Boston University coach refused to find ice time for his young player, even after Kakko took a big jump in year two. In 2020-21, he actually led the team in xGF – effectively going from one of the team’s worst players to one of the team’s best. However, he was given mostly bottom-six minutes and finished seventh amongst forwards in ice time. Quinn was never able to find the right balance, which might have been one of the reasons why he was fired after the season. There was at least reason for confidence going forward.
Gerard Gallant was then brought in. While the Canadian native was more of a hands-off coach who relied on veteran leadership, Kakko’s power-forward style appeared to be a fit. Gallant values players with size over finesse, which helped earn the 6-foot-3 winger a top-six role early on. However, injuries would derail Kakko, missing 39 games in that season alone. He returned in the playoffs and helped headline one of the most iconic trios – known as the “Kid Line” – featuring himself, Filip Chytil, and Alexis Lafreniere. While it provided the Rangers with a spark in a deep playoff run, it ran out of magic late in the series against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Kakko was scratched in the elimination Game 6.
The 2022-23 season finally felt like the breakout that fans were waiting for. It was Kakko’s best season statistically, with 18 goals and 22 assists for 40 points. Most importantly, he appeared in all 82 games and was given the third most ice time amongst forwards. But still, he could not get off the third line after the Rangers acquired Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane ahead of the trade deadline. And the early playoff exit made things tougher – forcing the organization to part ways with Gallant.
But still, even under new head coach Peter Laviolette, there was at least confidence that he would build off his best season and become an impact top-six winger. Laviolette allowed him to play with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider – but he just could not provide the two with enough of a spark. Plus, Kakko suffered a leg injury in November, which would force him to miss some time. It was obvious, even when the 23-year-old came back in January that he wasn’t the answer – at least in the present in the top six.
Kakko was his most effective on the third line. And because of that, Drury struck a deal at the trade deadline to acquire Jack Roslovic, who wasn’t the most dynamic – but still an upgrade over Kakko. The 23-year-old took a massive step back and finished the season with just 19 points in 61 games. Plus, he was a healthy scratch in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Final.
Multiple things can be true, Kakko has turned into a quality hockey player – but he hasn’t been anywhere near dynamic enough to meet his draft-day hype. Health has also been a killer.
What Could the Rangers Get in a Trade Package?
Now look, if the Rangers do decide to trade Kakko, they would be selling low. But at this rate, you have to wonder about what his upside is. Could he improve enough to develop into a second-liner that registers between 40 and 50 points? Sure – but Rangers fans will probably never be satisfied with it given where he was drafted.
But what matters is what his trade value is now as a top-nine winger. Will teams put stock into him being a second-overall pick several years ago? The fact he hasn’t been traded yet tells you his value is too low that it’s not worth it yet. We would guess a third-round pick, maybe a little bit more.
The issue with Kakko is not only the unknown when it comes to the top six – but he doesn’t play a premium position. His trade value would likely be higher if he was a center. For example, Kirby Dach, drafted in the same class as Kakko, was dealt for the 13th and 66th overall picks in 2022. The center position provides value, even if they can only play on the third line.
While nothing ever materialized, the New York Post previously reported that the Rangers could have used Kakko to trade up in the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft (from ‘NHL Draft could seal Kaapo Kakko’s Rangers fate,’ New York Post, June 27, 2024).
More than likely, Kakko’s tenure as a Ranger will come to an end eventually. He’ll get an opportunity in training camp to show that his game has taken a step forward – but time is against him. The youth movement is on its way, with prospects Brennan Othmann, and Brett Berard poised to challenge for a spot on the roster in 2024-25. Plus, blue-chip prospect Gabriel Perreault is coming. This season is Kakko’s last opportunity with the Blueshirts to prove he can be a core piece.
