NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky championed the idea of Sam Darnold‘s career rebirth well before the Minnesota Vikings‘ 4-0 start to the 2024 season — but according to Orlovsky, it’s Justin Jefferson, not Darnold, who deserves the league’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) award.
On an October 3 segment of ESPN’s “NFL Live,” Orlovsky made his case for Jefferson as the NFL MVP.
“The Minnesota Vikings, 4-0, and a lot of people probably think, well, it’s because of their quarterback, he’s the MVP of the NFL,” Orlovsky said. “No. The receiver is the MVP of the NFL right now.”
Orlovksy’s film study of the Vikings’ 31-29 win over the Green Bay Packers included several plays where Jefferson dictated the defense’s attention, opening opportunities for Darnold and the running game.
“Look at the advantage it is for your run game because Justin Jefferson lifts two defenders,” Orlovsky said. “The Vikings are 4-0, they’re the best team in the NFC by record right now, and they have the MVP of football. He’s not a quarterback, it’s Justin Jefferson.”
Vikings’ Justin Jefferson and Sam Darnold’s MVP Odds
Darnold’s MVP stock has skyrocketed as he leads the NFL in touchdowns (11) and passer rating (119.8) en route to NFL Offensive Player of the Month honors for September.
His preseason odds of +20000 have jumped to +1100, tied for the fourth-best odds with C.J. Stroud and behind only Patrick Mahomes (+240), Josh Allen (+260) and Lamar Jackson (+1000), per BetMGM sportsbook as of October 1.
Jefferson’s odds sit at +125000 to win the award often called “the quarterback award.”
The Vikings superstar receiver had a case for MVP in 2022 after tallying 128 receptions for 1,809 yards receiving and 8 touchdowns. He was the only non-quarterback to receive a double-digit percentage (11%) share of votes but did not receive a single first-place vote for one of the most productive wide receiver seasons in NFL history (it was enough for Jefferson to win Offensive Player of the Year).
Jefferson’s Chances of NFL MVP Are Slim to None
Jefferson’s chances of winning MVP this season are entirely tied to a less productive Vikings offense with Darnold. While the Vikings offense has scored the most points (29.0 per game) this season, their 217 passing yards per game ranks 10th behind sixth-fewest attempts (26.5) in the league.
That’s a byproduct of the Vikings trailing just 3 minutes, 26 seconds through four games. The offense has capitalized early, allowing the team to not have to play catch and throw the ball more.
That wasn’t the case in Jefferson’s OPOY season.
In 2022, the Kirk Cousins-led Vikings found themselves trailing in the fourth quarter often. The longtime Vikings quarterback tied an NFL-record eight fourth-quarter comebacks as the offense churned out 263.8 passing yards per game. They attempted 39.5 passes per game that season.
Jefferson’s impact on the game is clear when watching the film, but the only case for him to win MVP would be if he surpassed his 2022 production — and that looks unlikely with a more balanced team this year.
That’s not a problem for the Vikings receiver who’d rather be an integral piece to his team’s success than putting up empty statistics.
Jefferson enters Week 5 with 20 receptions for 358 yards and 4 touchdowns,
