Despite landing in Minnesota for a one-year trial, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is presenting a difficult decision down the road for the organization that just drafted J.J. McCarthy to be their quarterback of the future.
Through three weeks, Darnold leads the league with eight passing touchdowns and has the second-highest passer rating (117.3) among all quarterbacks. He’s the fourth quarterback in franchise history to win three consecutive games to start the season — the last being Brett Favre in 2009.
There’s still some skepticism about whether Darnold’s success is sustainable. But if he can carry the Vikings to a deep playoff run this season, then a multi-year contract could be a conversation in Minnesota.
However, according to ESPN’s Ben Solak, it doesn’t matter who’s under center for the Vikings next season given the success that Kevin O’Connell has coaxed out of his quarterbacks over the years — which doesn’t bode well for Darnold’s chances at a second contract in Minnesota.
“O’Connell is as good as any coordinator in the league at working around a quarterback who isn’t, perhaps, at the tippy-top tier of the position,” Solak wrote in a September 24 article. “He got the best production of Kirk Cousins‘ career in his final couple of seasons in Minnesota. He got a month of solid offense out of Joshua Dobbs. Heck, Nick Mullens threw for 400 yards in a game last season. O’Connell is so stinkin’ good at just getting a guy open — whether by formation, motion or route combination — that so long as he has a willing QB, this offense stays explosive.”
Sam Darnold’s Future in Minnesota is Not Written Despite 3-0 Start
While Darnold has taken the league by storm, the Vikings are not surprised by his success so far.
“They believed this offseason that Darnold had untapped potential,” ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote on September 25. “As one team source said, ‘can throw the [expletive] out of the ball.’ He just needed to clean up decision-making that plagued him in the past. O’Connell and the staff — and, yeah, the mere presence of star receiver Justin Jefferson — have streamlined that decision-making for him.”
The Vikings are well aware of their needs at quarterback and sought to find a passer who can distribute the ball in O’Connell’s scheme — with Darnold being a plug-and-play talent who could excel with the right pieces around him for the first time in his career.
The same goes for McCarthy, who was underestimated as a passer in college but showed tremendous development throughout his first offseason.
When considering O’Connell’s ability to coach up his starting quarterback, the Vikings would benefit more from turning to McCarthy, on a rookie-scale contract, than retreading the expensive veteran quarterback route with Darnold. The new regime just exited that option last offseason by parting ways with Cousins.
While the Vikings’ 3-0 start with Darnold is encouraging, they’ve made their future at quarterback clear — even after McCarthy’s first preseason ended abruptly with meniscus surgery.
“Everyone should be excited that we got our young franchise quarterback in the building,” O’Connell said on August 14, per the Minnesota Star Tribune.
Vikings Building to Support J.J. McCarthy
Since arriving in Minnesota, the new Vikings regime touted the benefits of roster-building around a rookie-scale contract.
By offloading Cousins’ contract, the Vikings accelerated their rebuild of the defense, investing roughly $150 million on veteran defensive talent. That included multi-year signings with Jonathan Greenard (four-year, $76 million), Andrew Van Ginkel (two-year, $20 million) and Blake Cashman (three-year, $22.5 million) — all top-100 free agents in Pro Football Focus’ 2024 rankings that have shined early this season.=
If Darnold maintains his level of play, he’ll warrant a multi-year starting quarterback contract — likely on par with Baker Mayfield‘s three-year, $100 million deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Vikings could afford to sign Darnold and run it back with this year’s roster. If this year’s team makes the Super Bowl, that’s not out of the question.
But if they move on with McCarthy instead, the 2025 offseason will be the final step of the “competitive rebuild.” the Vikings boast the sixth-most effective cap space ($65.9 million), which they can spend on top-end free agents who will be keystones to an ultra-competitive roster.
