One can argue that the Minnesota Vikings got lucky by inking Sam Darnold to a cheap one-year deal ($10 million total) and turning the team into one of the NFL's elite.
But what if Darnold -- who most of the league considered a bust for six years after the New York Jets selected him third overall in 2018 -- can sustain this level of play long-term under head coach Kevin O'Connell's friendly offensive system?
If the Vikings believe he can, that leap of faith will change the course of the organization. James Palmer of Bleacher Report predicted on the Thursday, Dec. 26 edition of his podcast that Minnesota will do precisely that by extending Darnold on a multiyear contract.
"I see Sam Darnold staying," Palmer said. "That is an option right now ... [though] the conversations have not happened yet."
While that call seems the safest decision Minnesota can make after Darnold has led the team to a 13-2 record behind 3,776 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the year. However, keeping Darnold on the roster in 2025 and beyond comes with serious risks.
The first is the shelving of injured quarterback J.J. McCarthy for at least another season. He has missed all of this campaign with a knee injury suffered over the summer. But the Vikings spent the No. 10 pick on him in April and if he's good, he represents better value than Darnold can possibly provide because McCarthy will cost far less and is six years younger.
Palmer, however, downplayed that concern.
"McCarthy is 21 years old," Palmer said. "If you delay [his ascendance] to some extent in keeping Sam Darnold, I wouldn't think that's the worst thing in the world."
The second issue is what Minnesota will have to pay Darnold to keep him. Palmer noted that up to six teams could be interested in Darnold considering the relative weakness of this year's draft class and the free-agent pool of QBs.
"Things are shaping up really well for Sam Darnold," Palmer added. "He is the one who's going to be at the top of this class."
Spotrac projects a four-year, $142 million deal for Darnold. And while the Vikings have a ton of cap space, they will sacrifice the potential value of McCarthy on a rookie deal -- spending an extra $35.5 million annually on Darnold rather than using it to improve the rest of the roster around a much less expensive first-round pick.
